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Pension expectations, reforms and macroeconomic downturn in Italy. What can microdata tell us?

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  • Massimo Baldini
  • Carlo Mazzaferro
  • Paolo Onofri

Abstract

We use different years of the Bank of Italy’s Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) to explore how Italian workers’ expectations regarding their future level of pension benefits and retirement age changed from 2000 to 2014. Comparing expected and statutory values for future pension benefits and retirement ages, we find that knowledge of the pension system and its rules are not evenly distributed among workers. Some sections of the population, in particular, younger workers, women and the self-employed, are less precise in estimating their future pension benefits. As for retirement age, a large share of the working population still has not completely assimilated the implications of the linkage with the evolution of lifetime expectations at 65. Expectations in the final part of the period observed are dominated by increasing pessimism, which may be related to the macroeconomic crisis of the Italian economy and to the approval of a severe pension reform in 2011. Checking whether a household’s total wealth is consistent with lifetime consumption, we find that households where the head overestimates the future value of the pension benefit accumulate fewer resources than the remaining part of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Baldini & Carlo Mazzaferro & Paolo Onofri, 2019. "Pension expectations, reforms and macroeconomic downturn in Italy. What can microdata tell us?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(13), pages 1396-1410, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:13:p:1396-1410
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1527453
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    Cited by:

    1. Angelici, Marta & Del Boca, Daniela & Oggero, Noemi & Profeta, Paola & Rossi, Maria Cristina & Villosio, Claudia, 2022. "Pension information and women’s awareness," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    2. Noemi Oggero, 2023. "Retirement Expectations in the Aftermath of a Pension Reform," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 9(1), pages 353-367, March.

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