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The effect of NAFTA on internal migration in Mexico: a regional economic analysis

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  • Mary Arends-Kuenning
  • Kathy Baylis
  • Rafael Garduño-Rivera

Abstract

Trade facilitates growth in some regions of a country while shrinking others, and therefore to benefit from trade, labour may need to be able to migrate. This mobility is particularly crucial in a developing country with high income inequality like Mexico. We seek to answer the following questions: What characteristics facilitate or hinder that internal migration? Has trade liberalization changed the pattern of internal migration in Mexico? We first predict regional economic growth resulting from changes in Mexico-US tariffs by sector. We find that trade liberalization appears to have largely benefited the manufacturing sector. Next, using a spatial gravity model of migration, we find that while economic growth from trade openness drew workers to urban regions in the northern Border States of Mexico, much of the trade-driven migration occurred before NAFTA. Second, contrary to popular belief, migration from largely rural states appears to have decreased since NAFTA. We also find evidence that migration to the United States increased after NAFTA. Last, we find that income disparity in both the destination and origin region deters migration and that this effect increases after NAFTA. Thus, we see evidence that within-region income disparity can hinder migration, potentially exacerbating income disparity among regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary Arends-Kuenning & Kathy Baylis & Rafael Garduño-Rivera, 2019. "The effect of NAFTA on internal migration in Mexico: a regional economic analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(10), pages 1052-1068, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:10:p:1052-1068
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2018.1524976
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    Cited by:

    1. Mary P. Arends-Kuenning & Kathy Baylis & Rafael Garduño-Rivera, 2024. "The effect of NAFTA on Mexico's wage gap," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 73(3), pages 1241-1267, October.
    2. Jaime Lara & Marla Cruz Yedra & Diana V. Moyeda López & Adriana Prats Molina & José A. Tellez Muñoz, 2020. "Migración rural urbana e informalidad en las zonas metropolitanas de México. Una estimación de corto plazo," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 35(2), pages 297-329.
    3. Andrés Gómez-Lobo & Daniel Oviedo, 2023. "Spatial Inequalities in Latin America: Mapping Aggregate to Micro-Level Disparities," LIS Working papers 869, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    4. Mora-Rivera, Jorge & van Gameren, Edwin, 2021. "The impact of remittances on food insecurity: Evidence from Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Gómez-Lobo, Andrés & Oviedo, Daniel, 2023. "Spatial inequalities in Latin America: mapping aggregate to micro-level disparities," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120691, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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