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Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea

Author

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  • Eunsun Yang
  • Sunghyun Henry Kim
  • Maria H Kim
  • Doojin Ryu

Abstract

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case.

Suggested Citation

  • Eunsun Yang & Sunghyun Henry Kim & Maria H Kim & Doojin Ryu, 2018. "Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(7), pages 757-773, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:7:p:757-773
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1340574
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shalini TALWAR & Jayant PANSARE, 2018. "Transmission of Shock across International Stock Markets: An Econometric Analysis," Economics and Applied Informatics, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 1, pages 110-119.
    2. Ryu, Doojin & Yu, Jinyoung, 2020. "Hybrid bond issuances by insurance firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    3. Lee, Jaeram & Lee, Geul & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Difference in the intraday return-volume relationships of spots and futures: A quantile regression approach," Economics Discussion Papers 2018-68, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Karam KIM & Doojin RYU, 2020. "Predictive ability of investor sentiment for the stock market," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 33-46, December.
    5. Huthaifa Alqaralleh & Ahmad Al-Majali & Abeer Alsarayrh, 2021. "Analyzing the Dynamics Between Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Indexes of Emerging Markets, Using Non-linear Methods," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 12(3), pages 193-204, May.
    6. Song, Wonho & Park, Sung Y. & Ryu, Doojin, 2018. "Dynamic conditional relationships between developed and emerging markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 507(C), pages 534-543.
    7. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    8. Baek, Chaeyoon & Baek, Seungho & Glambosky, Mina, 2024. "Macroeconomic impact and stock returns' vulnerability by size, solvency, and financial distress," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    9. Daehyeon PARK & Doojin RYU, 2021. "Forecasting Stock Market Dynamics using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 22-34, June.
    10. Veli Yilanci & Onder Ozgur & Muhammed Sehid Gorus, 2021. "Stock prices and economic activity nexus in OECD countries: new evidence from an asymmetric panel Granger causality test in the frequency domain," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    11. Lee, Jieun & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "How does FX liquidity affect the relationship between foreign ownership and stock liquidity?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 101-119.
    12. Salha Ben Salem & Moez Labidi, 2024. "Financial friction and optimal monetary policy: analysis of DSGE model with financial friction and price sticky," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(7), pages 1-24, July.
    13. Daehyeon Park & Jiyeon Park & Doojin Ryu, 2020. "Volatility Spillovers between Equity and Green Bond Markets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-12, May.

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