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To bet or not to bet: a reality check for tennis betting market efficiency

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  • Štefan Lyócsa
  • Tomáš Výrost

Abstract

We present evidence that the tennis betting market appears to be much more efficient than suggested by previous studies. More specifically, we study the market efficiency by studying the forecasting performance of a diversified set of 40 betting rules in two ways: by searching for the existence of a return differential between betting rules and by analysing the profitability of betting rules. Even though individual tests provide evidence that, within our universe of betting rules, positive returns can be achieved, when data-snooping bias is taken into account, the evidence diminishes. Subsequently, we also find very little evidence of return differentials between betting rules. These results cast doubts on previous research as they suggest that when the potential detrimental effects of data-dreading are taken into account, betting markets in general might not, ultimately, be so inefficient.

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  • Štefan Lyócsa & Tomáš Výrost, 2018. "To bet or not to bet: a reality check for tennis betting market efficiency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(20), pages 2251-2272, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:50:y:2018:i:20:p:2251-2272
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1394973
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    Cited by:

    1. He, Xue-Zhong & Treich, Nicolas, 2017. "Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 105-114.
    2. Ramirez, Philip & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2023. "Betting on a buzz: Mispricing and inefficiency in online sportsbooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1413-1423.

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