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Uncertainty and liquidity in corporate bond market

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Listed:
  • Liang Guo
  • Donald Lien
  • Maggie Hao
  • Hongxian Zhang

Abstract

We examine the uncertainty–liquidity connection in the corporate bond market. Using monthly corporate bond data from 2005 to 2010, we construct proxies for parameter uncertainty by using firm-level parameters generated from a structural model of corporate debt. We find that uncertainty about firm parameters decreases trading volume but increases bid-ask spreads and price bouncing in the cross-section and across time. In addition, the panel VAR results show that parameter uncertainty has negative forecasting power for future bond liquidity, with greater uncertainty in the current month leading to lower trading volume, higher bid-ask spreads and higher price fluctuations on subsequent months. We conclude that parameter uncertainty is one of the underlying factors giving rise to the high level of illiquidity in the corporate bond market.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang Guo & Donald Lien & Maggie Hao & Hongxian Zhang, 2017. "Uncertainty and liquidity in corporate bond market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(47), pages 4760-4781, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:47:p:4760-4781
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2017.1293792
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    Cited by:

    1. Su, Tong & Lin, Boqiang, 2022. "The liquidity impact of Chinese green bonds spreads," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 318-334.
    2. Ding, Shusheng & Cui, Tianxiang & Zheng, Dandan & Du, Min, 2021. "The effects of commodity financialization on commodity market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Zhang, Yongmin & Ding, Shusheng, 2021. "Liquidity effects on price and return co-movements in commodity futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Khoo, Joye & Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong), 2021. "Does geopolitical uncertainty affect corporate financing? Evidence from MIDAS regression," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    5. Jieyan Fang-Klingler, 2019. "Impact of Readability on Corporate Bond Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-18, December.
    6. Peng, Wei & Xiong, Langyu, 2022. "Managing financing costs and fostering green transition: The role of green financial policy in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 820-836.

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