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Asymmetric responses of money demand to oil price shocks in Saudi Arabia: a non-linear ARDL approach

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  • Mouyad Alsamara
  • Zouhair Mrabet
  • Michel Dombrecht
  • Karim Barkat

Abstract

Saudi Arabia is an open oil-based economy with fixed exchange rates; therefore, it has limited monetary policy autonomy. Using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach, this article investigates the asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the demand of money in Saudi Arabia over the period 1990:Q1–2014:Q4. The empirical results show evidence of positive long run but asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the money demand. In particular, we find that the positive oil price shocks are more important than negative shocks. Therefore, two policy responses can be considered: either sustaining the fixed exchange rate regime and following an economic diversification policy or switching towards a flexible exchange rate regime to achieve price stability. In that case, the existence of a stable money demand function in Saudi Arabia is a necessary precondition for adopting a monetary policy strategy targeted to price stability using instruments like money targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Mouyad Alsamara & Zouhair Mrabet & Michel Dombrecht & Karim Barkat, 2017. "Asymmetric responses of money demand to oil price shocks in Saudi Arabia: a non-linear ARDL approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(37), pages 3758-3769, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:37:p:3758-3769
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1267849
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alberto Behar & Armand Fouejieu, 2018. "External adjustment in oil exporters: The role of fiscal policy and the exchange rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 926-957, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Padhan, Hemachandra & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Understanding the time-frequency dynamics of money demand, oil prices and macroeconomic variables: The case of India," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. S. M. Woahid Murad & Ruhul Salim & Md. Golam Kibria, 2021. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(3), pages 451-470, September.
    3. Anthony Enisan Akinlo, 2024. "Asymmetric effects of world uncertainty index on the demand for money in Nigeria," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(9), pages 1-18, September.
    4. Nyakundi M. Michieka & Richard S. Gearhart, 2022. "Oil price changes and wages: a nonlinear and asymmetric approach," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 1-71, February.
    5. Chelghoum, Amirouche & Boumimez, Fayçal & Alsamara, Mouyad, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the demand for money in Algeria," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-11.
    6. Moayad Al Rasasi & Fares Rawah & Bander Alghamdi, 2020. "On the nexus between Stock Market Fluctuations and the Demand for Money in Saudi Arabia," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 142-154, March.
    7. H. F. Tareq Ahmed & Nur Syazwani Mazlan, 2021. "The Impact of Interest Rate on Exchange Rate Within ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Frameworks," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 13(1), pages 7-34, January.
    8. Alsamara, Mouyad & Mrabet, Zouhair & Dombrecht, Michel, 2018. "Asymmetric import cost pass-through in GCC countries: Evidence from nonlinear panel analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 432-440.
    9. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Alsamara, Mouyad, 2022. "Do labor remittance outflows retard economic growth in Qatar? Evidence from nonlinear cointegration," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-9.
    11. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    12. Masudul Hasan Adil & Salman Haider & Neeraj R. Hatekar, 2020. "Empirical Assessment of Money Demand Stability Under India’s Open Economy: Non-linear ARDL Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(4), pages 891-909, December.
    13. Malika Neifar & Niazi Kammoun, 2022. "Revisit of Tunisia s Money Demand Function: What About Oil Price and Exchange Rate Effects?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(5), pages 106-116, September.
    14. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    15. Haider Mahmood & Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb, 2018. "Asymmetrical effects of real exchange rate on the money demand in Saudi Arabia: A non-linear ARDL approach," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(11), pages 1-12, November.
    16. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Moayad H. Al Rasasi & Salah S. Alsayaary & Ziyadh Alfawzan, 2022. "Money demand under a fixed exchange rate regime: the case of Saudi Arabia," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 385-411, December.

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