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Quantile serial dependence in crude oil markets: evidence from improved quantilogram analysis with quantile wild bootstrapping

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  • Jen-Je Su
  • Adrian (Wai-Kong) Cheung
  • Eduardo Roca

Abstract

We examine the quantile serial dependence in crude oil prices based on the Linton and Whang’s quantile-based portmanteau test which we improved by means of quantile wild bootstrapping (QWB). Through Monte Carlo simulation, we find that the quantile wild bootstrap-based portmanteau test performs better than the bound testing procedure suggested by Linton and Whang. We apply the improved test to examine the efficiency of two crude oil markets – WTI and Brent. We also examine if the dependence is stable via rolling sample tests. Our results show that both WTI and Brent are serially dependent in all, except the median quantiles. These findings suggest that it may be misleading to examine the efficiency of crude oil markets in terms of mean (or median) returns only. These crude oil markets are relatively more serially dependent in non-median ranges.

Suggested Citation

  • Jen-Je Su & Adrian (Wai-Kong) Cheung & Eduardo Roca, 2017. "Quantile serial dependence in crude oil markets: evidence from improved quantilogram analysis with quantile wild bootstrapping," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(29), pages 2817-2828, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:29:p:2817-2828
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1248356
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    Cited by:

    1. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Baumöhl, Eduard & Sarwar, Suleman & Výrost, Tomáš, 2021. "Connectedness between energy and nonenergy commodity markets: Evidence from quantile coherency networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz & Rabeh Khalfaoui & Rizwan Ahmed & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2024. "Directional predictability from energy markets to exchange rates and stock markets in the emerging market countries (E7 + 1): New evidence from cross‐quantilogram approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1), pages 719-789, January.
    3. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Is the Housing Market in the United States Really Weakly-Efficient?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(14), pages 1124-1134, July.

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