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Do sovereign rating announcements affect emerging market exchange rate correlations? A multivariate DCC-GARCH approach

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  • Veysel Eraslan

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of sovereign credit rating announcements on time-varying exchange rate return correlations for a sample of 11 emerging market countries over the period 2002–2015. The data set covers daily exchange rates and long-term foreign currency sovereign ratings, outlooks and watch list. The pairwise time-varying correlations are derived by corrected Dynamic Conditional Correlation (cDCC) modelling which is a member of multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models family. Furthermore, to capture the global factor effect, a dynamic-weighted index is created by using dynamic principal component (DPC) analysis. Findings suggest that some of the emerging market exchange rate co-movements are affected by rating announcements. Upgrades of Moody’s and downgrades of Fitch lead to spillovers. Main source of these spillovers are sovereign credit rating changes of European countries, especially Czech Republic and Turkey. Countries with high amount of external debt, large current account deficit and speculative grade are more prone to be influenced by announcements on a foreign country’s long-term sovereign rating.

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  • Veysel Eraslan, 2017. "Do sovereign rating announcements affect emerging market exchange rate correlations? A multivariate DCC-GARCH approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(21), pages 2060-2082, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:21:p:2060-2082
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2016.1231906
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    Cited by:

    1. Priya Malhotra & Pankaj Sinha, 2024. "Balanced Funds in India Amid COVID-19 Crisis: Spreader of Financial Contagion?," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 13(1), pages 7-24, January.
    2. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    3. Athari, Seyed Alireza & Kondoz, Mehmet & Kirikkaleli, Dervis, 2021. "Dependency between sovereign credit ratings and economic risk: Insight from Balkan countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    4. Diego Silveira Pacheco de Oliveira & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Sovereign credit news and disagreement in expectations about the exchange rate: evidence from Brazil," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 48(3), pages 660-698, August.
    5. Pan, Beier, 2023. "The asymmetric dynamics of stock–bond liquidity correlation in China: The role of macro-financial determinants," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Shi, Yujie & Wang, Liming & Ke, Jian, 2021. "Does the US-China trade war affect co-movements between US and Chinese stock markets?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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