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The linkages, persistence, asymmetry in the volatility, the price discovery and efficiency, and the effect of the US subprime mortgage financial crisis on the spot and the futures market's returns: the case of India

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  • Muthucattu Thomas Paul
  • James D. Kimata

Abstract

This article examines the effects of persistence, asymmetry and the US subprime mortgage crisis on the volatility of the returns and also the price discovery, efficiency and the linkages and causality between the spot and futures volatility by using various classes of the ARCH and GARCH models, and through the Granger's causality. We have used two indices: one for spot and the other for futures, for the daily data from 12 June 2000 to 30 September 2013 from Nifty stock indices. We have then tested for ARCH effects, and subsequently employed various models of the ARCH and GARCH conditional volatility. The GARCH(1,1) model is found to be significant, and it implies that the returns are not autocorrelated and have 'short memory'. It supports the hypothesis of the efficiency of the markets. The negative 'news' has more significant effect on volatility, corroborating the 'leverage impact' in finance on market volatility. We have also tested the volatility spillover effects. The two methods we employed support the spillover effects and the causality is bidirectional. We also have used the dummy variable for the US subprime mortgage financial crisis and found that they are statistically significant. Indian stock market is thus integrated to the world stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Muthucattu Thomas Paul & James D. Kimata, 2016. "The linkages, persistence, asymmetry in the volatility, the price discovery and efficiency, and the effect of the US subprime mortgage financial crisis on the spot and the futures market's returns: th," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(8), pages 669-683, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:8:p:669-683
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1085641
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    Cited by:

    1. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Alsharari, Nizar, 2019. "The dynamic behavior of evolving efficiency: Evidence from the UAE stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 119-135.
    2. Xiafei Li & Dongxin Li & Xuhui Zhang & Guiwu Wei & Lan Bai & Yu Wei, 2021. "Forecasting regular and extreme gold price volatility: The roles of asymmetry, extreme event, and jump," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1501-1523, December.
    3. Shuangqi Li & Qi‐an Chen, 2021. "Do the Shanghai–Hong Kong & Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect programs enhance co‐movement between the Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, and U.S. stock markets?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2871-2890, April.

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