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A graphical representation of an estimated DSGE model

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  • Callum Jones
  • Mariano Kulish

Abstract

We write a New Keynesian model as an aggregate demand curve and an aggregate supply curve, relating inflation to output growth. The graphical representation shows how structural shocks move aggregate demand and supply simultaneously. We estimate the curves on US data from 1948 to 2010 and study two recessions: the 2001 recession and the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The Great Recession is explained by a collapse of aggregate demand driven by adverse preference and permanent technology shocks, and expectations of low inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish, 2016. "A graphical representation of an estimated DSGE model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(6), pages 483-489, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:6:p:483-489
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1083084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam Cagliarini & Mariano Kulish, 2013. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 328-336, March.
    2. Peter N. Ireland, 2004. "Technology Shocks in the New Keynesian Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 923-936, November.
    3. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2015. "New-Keynesian economics: An AS–AD view," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 503-524.
    4. Peter N. Ireland, 2011. "A New Keynesian Perspective on the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(1), pages 31-54, February.
    5. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Licandro, Omar, 2005. "The Under-Estimated Virtues of the Two-sector AK Model. Contributions to Macroeconomics," Munich Reprints in Economics 20595, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    6. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    7. Alvarez-Lois, Pedro & Harrison, Richard & Piscitelli, Laura & Scott, Alasdair, 2008. "On the application and use of DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2428-2452, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish, 2014. "A practical introduction to DSGE modeling with Dynare (in Russian)," Quantile, Quantile, issue 12, pages 23-44, February.
    2. Goyal, Ashima & Kumar, Abhishek, 2018. "Active monetary policy and the slowdown: Evidence from DSGE based Indian aggregate demand and supply," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 21-40.
    3. Michael Funke & Andrew Tsang, 2021. "The Direction and Intensity of China’s Monetary Policy: A Dynamic Factor Modelling Approach," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 97(316), pages 100-122, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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