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A nonlinear Granger causality test between stock returns and investor sentiment for Chinese stock market: a wavelet-based approach

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  • Xiaojun Chu
  • Chongfeng Wu
  • Jianying Qiu

Abstract

In this article, we re-examine the causality between the stock returns and investor sentiment in China. The number of net added accounts is used as a proxy for investor sentiment. To mimic the different investment horizons of market participants, we use the wavelet method to decompose stock returns and investor sentiment into time series with different frequencies. Additionally, we test for nonlinear causal relationships based on Taylor series approximation. Our results indicate that there is a one-directional linear causality from stock returns to investor sentiment on the original series, while there is a strong bi-directional nonlinear causality between stock returns and investor sentiment at different timescales.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaojun Chu & Chongfeng Wu & Jianying Qiu, 2016. "A nonlinear Granger causality test between stock returns and investor sentiment for Chinese stock market: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(21), pages 1915-1924, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:21:p:1915-1924
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1109048
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    Cited by:

    1. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2018. "Does sentiment matter for stock returns? Evidence from Indian stock market using wavelet approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 32-39.
    2. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2019. "The relationship between emerging and developed market sentiment: A wavelet-based time-frequency analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 135-150.
    3. Xin Zhao & Muhammad Saeed Meo & Tella Oluwatoba Ibrahim & Noshaba Aziz & Solomon Prince Nathaniel, 2023. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty and Pandemic Uncertainty on International Tourism: What do We Learn From COVID-19?," Evaluation Review, , vol. 47(2), pages 320-349, April.
    4. Ziyuan Ma & Conor Ryan & Jim Buckley & Muslim Chochlov, 2024. "Do Weibo platform experts perform better at predicting stock market?," Papers 2403.00772, arXiv.org.
    5. Shah, Syed Faisal & Albaity, Mohamed, 2022. "The role of trust, investor sentiment, and uncertainty on bank stock return performance: Evidence from the MENA region," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    6. Rakovská, Zuzana, 2021. "Composite survey sentiment as a predictor of future market returns: Evidence for German equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 473-495.
    7. Derrick W. H. Fung & David Jou & Ai Ju Shao & Jason J. H. Yeh, 2021. "The informativeness of embedded value reporting to stock price," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(4), pages 5341-5376, December.
    8. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Bonsu, Christiana Osei & Karikari, Nana Kwasi & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The effects of public sentiments and feelings on stock market behavior: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 443-472.
    9. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2021. "Do oil and gas prices influence economic policy uncertainty differently: Multi-country evidence using time-frequency approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 397-420.
    10. Wang, Lu & Ma, Feng & Niu, Tianjiao & Liang, Chao, 2021. "The importance of extreme shock: Examining the effect of investor sentiment on the crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    11. Gaoshan Wang & Guangjin Yu & Xiaohong Shen, 2020. "The Effect of Online Investor Sentiment on Stock Movements: An LSTM Approach," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-11, December.
    12. Chi-Wei Su & Xu-Yu Cai & Ran Tao, 2020. "Can Stock Investor Sentiment Be Contagious in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Rilwan Sakariyahu & Mohamed Sherif & Audrey Paterson & Eleni Chatzivgeri, 2021. "Sentiment‐Apt investors and UK sector returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3321-3351, July.
    14. Shuai Zhao & Yunhai Tong & Zitian Wang & Shaohua Tan, 2016. "Identifying Key Drivers of Return Reversal with Dynamical Bayesian Factor Graph," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(11), pages 1-20, November.
    15. Dash, Saumya Ranjan & Maitra, Debasish, 2018. "Does Shariah index hedge against sentiment risk? Evidence from Indian stock market using time–frequency domain approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 20-35.
    16. Yonghong JIANG & Juan MENG & He NIE, 2018. "Visiting the Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks - Economic Growth Relationship: Wavelet-based Granger-Causality in Quantiles Approac," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 80-94, December.
    17. Deng, Chao & Zhou, Xiaoying & Peng, Cheng & Zhu, Huiming, 2022. "Going green: Insight from asymmetric risk spillover between investor attention and pro-environmental investment," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    18. Lao, Jiashun & Nie, He & Jiang, Yonghong, 2018. "Revisiting the investor sentiment–stock returns relationship: A multi-scale perspective using wavelets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 499(C), pages 420-427.

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