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Third-country exchange rate volatility and Japanese--US trade: evidence from industry-level data

Author

Listed:
  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
  • Scott W. Hegerty
  • Dan Xi

Abstract

As an important economic power globally as well as within Asia, Japan is susceptible to fluctuations in the yen versus both the dollar and its neighbours’ currencies. The resulting risk, from both sources, might, therefore, have important effects on Japanese trade. This study incorporates third-country exchange rate volatility (both yen-renminbi and dollar-renminbi) into a reduced form trade model for industry trade between the US and Japan. As was the case with a previous study that did not include these effects, our cointegration analysis finds that most industries are unaffected by risk. Third-country effects are, however, significant in a number of cases. Interestingly, a large share of US industries find that exports increase due to third-country risk, suggesting that this volatility is encouraging traders to reorient their trade markets by substitution.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Dan Xi, 2016. "Third-country exchange rate volatility and Japanese--US trade: evidence from industry-level data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(16), pages 1452-1462, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:48:y:2016:i:16:p:1452-1462
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1100264
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    Cited by:

    1. Chi, Junwook, 2018. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate and income changes on maritime freight flows between Japan and the US," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 158-169.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Muhammad Aftab, 2018. "A new perspective on the third-country effect: The case of Malaysia–US industry-level trade," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 607-637, August.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Misbah Nosheen & Javed Iqbal, 2017. "Third-Country Exchange Rate Volatility and Pakistan-U.S. Trade at Commodity Level," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 105-129, March.
    4. Lal, Madan & Kumar, Satish & Pandey, Dharen Kumar & Rai, Varun Kumar & Lim, Weng Marc, 2023. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Nazif Durmaz & John Kagochi, 2022. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkish Imports of Cocoa Beans," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-11, April.
    6. Chi, Junwook, 2020. "The impact of third-country exchange rate risk on international air travel flows: The case of Korean outbound tourism demand," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 66-78.
    7. Ebenezer Olamide & Kanayo Ogujiuba & Andrew Maredza, 2022. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Approach for SADC," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.

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