IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v47y2015i9p940-954.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The duration analysis of structural breaks: is stability destabilizing?

Author

Listed:
  • Jin Suk Park

Abstract

This article investigates how the duration of a regime (i.e., the length of stability) affects the likelihood of a permanent structural break by devising the duration dependence in structural break method, which combines a structural break test and a duration dependence test. First, the locations of structural breaks are identified by Bai and Perron’s (1998) method. Then, it is estimated how a hazard rate changes in duration between structural breaks by parametric duration analysis using the Weibull and the log-logistic hazard functions.This study reveals the evidence of positive duration dependence, that is, stability is destabilizing, in 13 out of 27 international stock indices and the pooled data. In other words, as one regime continues over time with unchanged parameter values, a new structural break is more likely to occur. This method discloses a lower degree of duration dependence than the duration-dependence Markov-switching model (Durland and McCurdy, 1994) that considers temporary switches between a limited number of regimes. Also, some new patterns are emerged, e.g., more predominant positive duration dependence in bear markets, the secondary stock exchanges of a country and developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin Suk Park, 2015. "The duration analysis of structural breaks: is stability destabilizing?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(9), pages 940-954, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:9:p:940-954
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.985370
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2014.985370
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2014.985370?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:9:p:940-954. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.