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US money supply and global business cycles: 1979–2009

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  • Jinghua Lei
  • Kai Liu

Abstract

This article investigates the effects of the US money supply shock on global business cycles by employing a global vector autoregressive model containing 26 economies over the period from 1979Q2 to 2009Q4. The US money supply is incorporated as an endogenous variable for the US and a global factor for other economies. When a positive US money supply shock hits the global economy, developed economies (such as the US, Euro area and the UK) will have neither real output decline nor inflation pressure, while China and some other developing countries are going to have a significant decline of real GDP. The international spillover of the liquidity effect exists. The global effects of quantitative easing are discussed as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Jinghua Lei & Kai Liu, 2015. "US money supply and global business cycles: 1979–2009," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(52), pages 5689-5705, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:52:p:5689-5705
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1054075
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