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Herding, anti-herding behaviour in metal commodities futures: a novel portfolio-based approach

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  • Vassilios Babalos
  • Stavros Stavroyiannis

Abstract

The purpose of this article is twofold. Motivated by the heated debate on the financialization of commodities, we examine the existence of herding behaviour in metal commodities futures. In order to identify any time-dependent properties reflected in time-varying parameters, we employ the overlapping rolling window regression technique. The empirical evidence confirms a time-varying anti-herding behaviour before the global financial crisis and the absence of herding or anti-herding behaviour during the crisis. Next we attempt to formally establish the link between the documented anti-herding behaviour and portfolio management with the use of dynamic conditional correlations via the DCC-GARCH family multivariate modelling. After specifying the correlations, an in-sample recursive dynamic Markowitz portfolio is constructed and monitored. By doing so, we attribute the anti-herding behaviour to different portfolio positioning and rebalancing. On the other hand, in the absence of herding or anti-herding behaviour, we document a shift in the correlations and covariances of the commodity futures especially during the crisis, resulting in a decrease of the portfolio weights together with a substantial cash flow towards the risk-free asset.

Suggested Citation

  • Vassilios Babalos & Stavros Stavroyiannis, 2015. "Herding, anti-herding behaviour in metal commodities futures: a novel portfolio-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(46), pages 4952-4966, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:46:p:4952-4966
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2015.1039702
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    Cited by:

    1. Júlio Lobão, 2022. "Herding Behavior in the Market for Green Cryptocurrencies: Evidence from CSSD and CSAD Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-17, October.
    2. Liu, Xueyong & Chen, Zhihua & Chen, Zhensong & Yao, Yinhong, 2022. "The time-varying spillover effect of China’s stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    3. Nektarios Gavrilakis & Christos Floros, 2023. "ESG performance, herding behavior and stock market returns: evidence from Europe," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-21, March.
    4. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Jacobus Nel, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and Investor Herding in International Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-11, September.
    5. Gong, Xu & Xu, Jun & Liu, Tangyong & Zhou, Zicheng, 2022. "Dynamic volatility connectedness between industrial metal markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    6. Humayun Kabir, M. & Shakur, Shamim, 2018. "Regime-dependent herding behavior in Asian and Latin American stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 60-78.
    7. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Zhu, Haotian & Tao, Ran & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2020. "Testing for multiple bubbles in the copper price: Periodically collapsing behavior," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Babalos, Vassilios & Bekiros, Stelios & Lahmiri, Salim, 2019. "Is anti-herding behavior spurious?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 379-383.
    9. Mohamad, Azhar & Fromentin, Vincent, 2023. "Herd and causality dynamics between energy commodities and ethical investment: Evidence from the different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    10. Ukpong, Idibekeabasi & Tan, Handy & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2021. "Determinants of industry herding in the US stock market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    11. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer & Talat Ulussever, 2016. "Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in net exporting nations?," Working Papers 15-29, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    12. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali & Elie Bouri & Anupam Dutta, 2021. "Herding on Fundamental/Nonfundamental Information During the COVID-19 Outbreak and Cyber-Attacks: Evidence From the Cryptocurrency Market," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.
    13. Xolani Sibande & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Investor Sentiment and (Anti) Herding in the Currency Market: Evidence from Twitter Feed Data," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 56-72, January.
    14. Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Babalos, Vassilios, 2019. "Herding behavior in cryptocurrencies revisited: Novel evidence from a TVP model," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 57-63.
    15. Dorika Jeremiah Mwamtambulo, 2019. "Herding Behaviours in Poland and Tanzania," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9011210, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    16. Babalos, Vassilios & Stavroyiannis, Stavros & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Do commodity investors herd? Evidence from a time-varying stochastic volatility model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 281-287.
    17. Balcılar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Ulussever, Talat, 2017. "Does speculation in the oil market drive investor herding in emerging stock markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-63.
    18. Ali, Sara & Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza, 2023. "Anti-herding by hedge funds and its implications for expected returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 31-48.
    19. Rytis Kazakeviv{c}ius & Aleksejus Kononovicius, 2023. "Anomalous diffusion and long-range memory in the scaled voter model," Papers 2301.08088, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2023.
    20. Xing, Shuo & Cheng, Tingting & Sun, Shuanglin, 2024. "Do investors herd under global crises? A comparative study between Chinese and the United States stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    21. Cheng, Tingting & Xing, Shuo & Yao, Wenying, 2022. "An examination of herding behaviour of the Chinese mutual funds: A time-varying perspective," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    22. Coskun, Esra Alp & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Kahyaoglu, Hakan, 2020. "Uncertainty and herding behavior: evidence from cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    23. Júnior, Gerson de Souza Raimundo & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Pinto, Antonio Carlos Figueiredo, 2020. "Analyzing herding behavior in commodities markets – an empirical approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).

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