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Synthetic CDO pricing: the perspective of risk integration

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  • Conghui Hu
  • Xun Zhang
  • Qiuming Gao

Abstract

The underlying asset pool of collateral debt obligations (CDOs) simultaneously encompasses credit risk and market risk. However, the standard CDO pricing model not only underestimates the risk to the asset pool due to a poor description of the correlation structure among obligors but is also incapable of reflecting the impacts of interdependent markets, credit risks and systematic sudden shocks on the asset pool. This paper studies the joint impact of interrelated market and credit risk factors on the key inputs of CDO pricing (default probability, default correlation and default loss rate) under the framework of factor copula CDO pricing model and constructs a risk-integrated model for CDO pricing. In addition, we extend the static integrated model to a dynamic version by allowing the risk factors driven by the copula-GARCH process. The simulation results show that, compared with an integrated model, the premium of senior tranches is significantly lower under the standard model. Such difference is mainly due to different assumptions of the distributions of risk-driving factor.

Suggested Citation

  • Conghui Hu & Xun Zhang & Qiuming Gao, 2015. "Synthetic CDO pricing: the perspective of risk integration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(15), pages 1574-1587, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:47:y:2015:i:15:p:1574-1587
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.1000525
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Frey, Rüdiger & Backhaus, Jochen, 2010. "Dynamic hedging of synthetic CDO tranches with spread risk and default contagion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 710-724, April.
    5. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, April.
    6. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    7. Wang, Dezhong & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2009. "Pricing of credit default index swap tranches with one-factor heavy-tailed copula models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 201-215, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marco Di Francesco & Kevin Kamm, 2022. "CDO calibration via Magnus Expansion and Deep Learning," Papers 2212.12318, arXiv.org.
    2. Pierre Rostan & Alexandra Rostan & François-Éric Racicot, 2020. "Increment Variance Reduction Techniques with an Application to Multi-name Credit Derivatives," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 55(1), pages 1-35, January.

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