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Monetary policy effectiveness and stock market cycles in ASEAN-5

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  • Roohollah Zare
  • M. Azali
  • M. S. Habibullah
  • W. N. W. Azman-Saini

Abstract

This article examines the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on real output in bull and bear phases of stock market in five ASEAN economies (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand) using the recently developed pooled mean group (PMG) technique. Stock market cycles are identified by employing Markov switching models and the rule-based nonparametric approach. Estimating the models using monthly data from 1991:1 to 2011:12, the results show that monetary policy (measured by short-term interest rate) has a negative and statistically significant long-run effect on real output in bull and bear market periods while the effects are stronger in bear periods than bulls. In the short run, there is no statistically significant relationship between monetary policy and real output. These results are consistent with finance constraints (capital market imperfection) models that predict that monetary policy is more effective during bear periods than bulls.

Suggested Citation

  • Roohollah Zare & M. Azali & M. S. Habibullah & W. N. W. Azman-Saini, 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness and stock market cycles in ASEAN-5," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(20), pages 2362-2374, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:20:p:2362-2374
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.899673
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    Cited by:

    1. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Interdependence between monetary policy and asset prices in ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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