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Uncertainty of outcome or strengths of teams: an economic analysis of attendance demand for international cricket

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  • Abhinav Sacheti
  • Ian Gregory-Smith
  • David Paton

Abstract

A significant body of theoretical literature has argued that popular interest in sporting contests between teams is heavily influenced by how difficult it is to predict the result ex-ante . Empirical research has, however, been unable to reach a consensus on the magnitude of uncertainty of outcome on demand. In this article, we seek to resolve this impasse by distinguishing between uncertainty of outcome in the short run and uncertainty of outcome in the long run. We also show that it is important to control for the independent effect of absolute team strength when testing the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. Using data on over 380 Test cricket matches played in England, Australia and New Zealand since 1980, we find that short-run uncertainty of outcome has a significant impact on attendance demand and that absolute team strength has better explanatory power for attendance demand than does long-run uncertainty of outcome. Our results suggest some policy implications for the management and organization of international cricket.

Suggested Citation

  • Abhinav Sacheti & Ian Gregory-Smith & David Paton, 2014. "Uncertainty of outcome or strengths of teams: an economic analysis of attendance demand for international cricket," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(17), pages 2034-2046, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:46:y:2014:i:17:p:2034-2046
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.892203
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dominik Schreyer, 2019. "Football spectator no-show behaviour in the German Bundesliga," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(45), pages 4882-4901, September.
    2. Sang Hun Sung & Doo-Seung Hong & Soo Young Sul, 2020. "How We Can Enhance Spectator Attendance for the Sustainable Development of Sport in the Era of Uncertainty: A Re-Examination of Competitive Balance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Babatunde Buraimo & Rob Simmons, 2015. "Uncertainty of Outcome or Star Quality? Television Audience Demand for English Premier League Football," International Journal of the Economics of Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 449-469, November.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Matthew Olczak & J. James Reade & Matthew Yeo, 2020. "Mass Outdoor Events and the Spread of a Virus: English Football and Covid-19," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-19, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    6. Jeremy K. Nguyen & Adam Karg & Abbas Valadkhani & Heath McDonald, 2022. "Predicting individual event attendance with machine learning: a ‘step-forward’ approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(27), pages 3138-3153, June.
    7. Sarah Jewell & J. James Reade & Carl Singleton, 2020. "It's Just Not Cricket: The Uncontested Toss and the Gentleman's Game," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-10, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
    8. Petr A. Parshakov & Kseniya O. Baydina, 2017. "Brands or Uncertainty? An Empirical Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in Russian Football," HSE Working papers WP BRP 163/EC/2017, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    9. Abhinav Sacheti & David Paton & Ian Gregory-Smith, 2016. "An Economic Analysis of Attendance Demand for One Day International Cricket," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(296), pages 121-136, March.
    10. Adam Cox, 2018. "Spectator Demand, Uncertainty of Results, and Public Interest," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(1), pages 3-30, January.

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