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Estimating the degree of interventionist policies in the run-up to EMU

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  • David Sondermann
  • Mark Trede
  • Bernd Wilfling

Abstract

Based on a theoretical monetary exchange-rate model in continuous time, this article establishes a sequential estimation framework which is capable of indicating central bank intervention in the run-up to a currency union. Using daily pre-European Monetary Union (pre-EMU) exchange-rate data for the countries of the current Euro zone, we find mixed evidence of active pre-EMU intervention policies (so-called institutional frontloading strategies). Our estimation framework is highly relevant to economic and political agents operating in financial markets of the upcoming EMU accession countries.

Suggested Citation

  • David Sondermann & Mark Trede & Bernd Wilfling, 2011. "Estimating the degree of interventionist policies in the run-up to EMU," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 207-218.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:43:y:2011:i:2:p:207-218
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840802481884
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    1. De Grauwe, Paul, 1996. "How to Fix Conversion Rates at the Start of EMU," CEPR Discussion Papers 1530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    1. Gerrit Reher & Bernd Wilfling, 2010. "An exact pricing formula for European call options on zero-coupon bonds in the run-up to a currency union," CQE Working Papers 1010, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    2. Reher, Gerrit & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The valuation of European call options on zero-coupon bonds in the run-up to a fixed exchange-rate regime," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 483-496.
    3. Görgens, Maik & Thulin, Måns, 2014. "Bias-correction of the maximum likelihood estimator for the α-Brownian bridge," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 78-86.
    4. Bernardo D’Auria & Alessandro Ferriero, 2020. "A Class of Itô Diffusions with Known Terminal Value and Specified Optimal Barrier," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Zhao, Shoujiang & Liu, Qiaojing & Chen, Ting, 2018. "On the large deviation principle for maximum likelihood estimator of α-Brownian bridge," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 143-150.
    6. Naszodi, Anna, 2011. "Exchange rate dynamics under state-contingent stochastic process switching," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 896-908, September.

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