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Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations

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  • Maritta Paloviita

Abstract

This article examines inflation dynamics in Europe. Econometric specification tests with pooled European data are used to compare the empirical performance of the New Classical, New Keynesian and Hybrid specifications of the Phillips curve. Instead of imposing any specific form of expectations formation, direct measures, i.e. Consensus Economics survey data are used to proxy economic agents' inflation expectations. According to the results, the New Classical Phillips curve has satisfactory statistical properties. Moreover, the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve is clearly outperformed by the New Classical and Hybrid Phillips curves. We interpret our results as indicating that the European inflation process is not purely forward looking and inflation cannot instantaneously adjust to changes in expectations. Consequently, even allowing for possible nonrationality in expectations results in a lagged inflation term entering the New Keynesian Phillips curve for inflation dynamics in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Maritta Paloviita, 2008. "Comparing alternative Phillips curve specifications: European results with survey-based expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(17), pages 2259-2270.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:40:y:2008:i:17:p:2259-2270
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840600949439
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jondeau, E. & Le Bihan, H., 2001. "Testing for a Forward-Looking Phillips Curve. Additional Evidence from European and US Data," Working papers 86, Banque de France.
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    6. Maritta Paloviita & Matti Virén, 2005. "The role of expectations in the inflation process in the euro area," Macroeconomics 0508031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2003. "New Keynesian Phillips Curves: a reassessment using euro-area data," Working Paper Series 265, European Central Bank.
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