IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v37y2005i15p1705-1718.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Testing rational expectations in primary commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Luca Pieroni
  • Matteo Ricciarelli

Abstract

The standard method used to test the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) in primary commodity markets is by means of a structural approach. In this paper, a parsimonious vector error correction model in the price and stock equation is derived that maintains almost complete information of the underlying structural model. The empirical section utilizes 1955-2000 US copper data to investigate the properties of the model extended to the macroeconomic variables. The estimation results are statistically robust and are in keeping with economic theory. Three different results are found: (i) price adjustments depend on the short-run dynamic of the stock equation, whereas the long-run dynamic is statistically rejected; (ii) the over-identification restrictions, including the test for the REH, are not rejected; (iii) the forecast simulations on price are well performed.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Pieroni & Matteo Ricciarelli, 2005. "Testing rational expectations in primary commodity markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(15), pages 1705-1718.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:15:p:1705-1718
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500173205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00036840500173205
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036840500173205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    3. Claudio Agostini, 2006. "Estimating Market Power in the US Copper Industry," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 28(1), pages 17-39, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pieroni, Luca & Ricciarelli, Matteo, 2008. "Modelling dynamic storage function in commodity markets: Theory and evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1080-1092, September.
    2. Boschi, Melisso & Pieroni, Luca, 2009. "Aluminium market and the macroeconomy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-207.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brendan Markey‐Towler, 2019. "The New Microeconomics: A Psychological, Institutional, and Evolutionary Paradigm with Neoclassical Economics as a Special Case," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(1), pages 95-135, January.
    2. Czujack, Corinna & Flôres Junior, Renato Galvão & Ginsburgh, Victor, 1995. "On long-run price comovements between paintings and prints," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 269, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    3. Lisbeth Funding la Cour, 1995. "A Component® based Analysis of the danish Long-run Money Demand Relation," Discussion Papers 95-18, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    4. Yew-Kwang Ng & Xiaokai Yang, 2005. "Specialization, Information, And Growth: A Sequential Equilibrium Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: An Inframarginal Approach To Trade Theory, chapter 20, pages 447-474, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Muhammad Shahbaz & Vassilios G. Papavassiliou & Amine Lahiani & David Roubaud, 2023. "Are we moving towards decarbonisation of the global economy? Lessons from the distant past to the present," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2620-2634, July.
    6. Yap, Wei Yim & Lam, Jasmine S.L., 2006. "Competition dynamics between container ports in East Asia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 35-51, January.
    7. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Biases in Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality or Asymmetric Loss?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 122-157, March.
    8. Ely, David & Salehizadeh, Mehdi, 2001. "American depositary receipts: An analysis of international stock price movements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 343-363.
    9. Candelon, Bertrand & Lieb, Lenard, 2013. "Fiscal policy in good and bad times," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2679-2694.
    10. Abbas Alavirad & Sanhita Athawale, 2005. "The impact of the budget deficit on inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 29(1), pages 37-49, March.
    11. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "Do Permanent Shocks Explain Income Levels? A Common Cycle–Common Trend Analysis Of Regional Income Levels For China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 656-662, December.
    12. Liu, Yaping & Sadiq, Farah & Ali, Wajahat & Kumail, Tafazal, 2022. "Does tourism development, energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth matters for ecological footprint: Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and pollution haven hypothesis for Pakistan," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    13. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "The Time-Varying Long-Run Unemployment Rate: The Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 389, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities 1998–2013," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    15. Costola, Michele & Iacopini, Matteo, 2023. "Measuring sovereign bond fragmentation in the Eurozone," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Jie, Yu & Rasool, Zeeshan & Nassani, Abdelmohsen A. & Mattayaphutron, Suchira & Murad, Muhammad, 2024. "Sustainable Central Asia: Impact of fintech, natural resources, renewable energy, and financial inclusion to combat environmental degradation and achieving sustainable development goals," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    17. Juan de Dios Tena & César Salazar, 2008. "Explaining inflation and output volatility in Chile: an empirical analysis of forty years," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    18. Azem Duraku, 2021. "Public Expenditures Through Public Procurement," European Journal of Engineering and Formal Sciences Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 2, 2019.
    19. Grigori Fainstein & Igor Novikov, 2011. "The Comparative Analysis of Credit Risk Determinants In the Banking Sector of the Baltic States," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 1, pages 20-45, June.
    20. Korczak, Piotr & Phylaktis, Kate, 2010. "Related securities and price discovery: Evidence from NYSE-listed Non-U.S. stocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 566-584, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:15:p:1705-1718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.