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Threshold nonlinearities in unemployment rates: further evidence for the UK and G3 economies

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  • D. A. Peel
  • A. E. H. Speight

Abstract

The paper appraises the in-sample and out-of-sample adequacy of linear AR and nonlinear SETAR models of unemployment rates for Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. Tests are reported for the presence and specification of threshold nonlinearities, SETAR model estimates, limiting dynamic properties and residual diagnostics, and out-of-sample forecasting performance. In-sample, threshold non-linearities are confirmed to be strongly present for the UK, US and Germany, and more marginally so for Japan. Out-of-sample, excepting Japan, SETAR models provide superior onestep-ahead forecast on RMSE grounds, most notably for the US. Final tests indicate that these models exhibit predictive accuracy in the sense of parameter and residual variance stability, implying the potential for exploitation of such nonlinearity in official forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • D. A. Peel & A. E. H. Speight, 2000. "Threshold nonlinearities in unemployment rates: further evidence for the UK and G3 economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 705-715.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:6:p:705-715
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400322327
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    1. Granger, Clive W. J. & Terasvirta, Timo, 1993. "Modelling Non-Linear Economic Relationships," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773207.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos & Konstantinos Gkillas, 2018. "Intraday realised volatility forecasting and announcements," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 88-118.
    2. Tsong, Ching-Chuan & Wu, Chien-Wei & Chiu, Hsien-Hung & Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2013. "Covariate unit root tests under structural change and asymmetric STAR dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 101-112.
    3. Milas, Costas & Rothman, Philip, 2008. "Out-of-sample forecasting of unemployment rates with pooled STVECM forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 101-121.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. R. Inglesi-Lotz & A. Hakimi & A. Pouris, 2018. "Patents vs publications and R&D: three sides of the same coin? Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) for OECD and BRICS countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(45), pages 4912-4923, September.
    6. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
    7. Amaia Altuzarra, 2015. "Measuring Unemployment Persistence by Age and Gender," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 110-133, December.
    8. Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2010. "Testing for unemployment hysteresis in nonlinear heterogeneous panels: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1097-1102, September.
    9. Tsong Ching-Chuan, 2012. "Unit Root Testing with Stationary Covariates in the Framework of Asymmetric STAR Nonlinearity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(5), pages 1-27, December.
    10. Umi Mahmudah, 2017. "Predicting unemployment rates in Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 9(1), pages 20-28, April.
    11. Cai, Yuzhi, 2007. "A quantile approach to US GNP," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 969-979, November.
    12. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    13. Costas Milas & Phil Rothman, 2005. "Multivariate STAR Unemployment Rate Forecasts," Econometrics 0502010, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chia-Hao, 2011. "Hysteresis in Unemployment for G-7 Countries: Threshold Unit Root Test," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-14, December.
    15. Hamdi, Helmi & Hakimi, Abdelaziz, 2019. "Does Liquidity Matter on Bank Profitability? Evidence from a Nonlinear Framework for a Large Sample," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 10(1), pages 13-26, January.
    16. Floros, Ch., 2005. "Forecasting the UK Unemployment Rate: Model Comparisons," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 57-72.
    17. Olmedo, Elena, 2011. "Is there chaos in the Spanish labour market?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 44(12), pages 1045-1053.
    18. Lee, Cheng-Feng & Hu, Te-Chung & Li, Ping-Cheng & Tsong, Ching-Chuan, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates: Evidence from the quantile covariate unit root test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-84.
    19. Tarlok Singh, 2012. "Testing nonlinearities in economic growth in the OECD countries: an evidence from SETAR and STAR models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3887-3908, October.
    20. Elena Olmedo, 2014. "Forecasting Spanish Unemployment Using Near Neighbour and Neural Net Techniques," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 183-197, February.
    21. Tsong Ching-Chuan, 2012. "Unit Root Testing with Stationary Covariates in the Framework of Asymmetric STAR Nonlinearity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(5), pages 1-27, December.
    22. Chang, Ming-Jen & Su, Che-Yi, 2014. "Hysteresis versus natural rate in Taiwan's unemployment: Evidence from the educational attainment categories," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 293-304.
    23. Abdelaziz Hakimi & Rim Boussaada & Majdi Karmani, 2022. "Is the relationship between corruption, government stability and non‐performing loans non‐linear? A threshold analysis for the MENA region," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4383-4398, October.
    24. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Simona-Andreea Apostu & Liviu Adrian Stoica, 2021. "Socioeconomic Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic: Exploring Uncertainty in the Forecast of the Romanian Unemployment Rate for the Period 2020–2023," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-22, June.

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