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Excess volatility of real exchange rates in the EMS: some evidence from structural VARs

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  • Bernd Kempa

Abstract

This paper argues that the effectiveness of the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) should be gauged by its impact on the monetary component of real exchange rate variability. Nominal and real shocks are separated using a bivariate structural VAR applied to real exchange rate data of the six original member countries participating in the ERM and a control group consisting of Britain and the United States. The findings suggest that monetary shocks have been an important source of real exchange rate variability and that the ERM has been successful in reducing the incidence of monetary shocks across its member countries prior to the EMS currency crises of 1992-93, while being less successful thereafter.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernd Kempa, 2000. "Excess volatility of real exchange rates in the EMS: some evidence from structural VARs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 73-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:32:y:2000:i:1:p:73-79
    DOI: 10.1080/000368400322994
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    Cited by:

    1. David Fernando LOPEZ ANGARITA, 2006. "Nivel óptimo de Reservas Internacionales y crisis cambiaria en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 3273, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    2. Wei Sun, 2006. "Why Do Floating Exchange Rates Float? Evidence From Capital Flows in a Structural VAR Model," EcoMod2006 272100092, EcoMod.
    3. Moore, Tomoe & Pentecost, Eric J., 2006. "An investigation into the sources of fluctuation in real and nominal wage rates in eight EU countries: A structural VAR approach," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 357-376, June.

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