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The real exchange rate in Colombia: an analysis using multivariate cointegration

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  • Jesus Otero

Abstract

Johansen's analysis of cointegrated systems is used to build a model of the Colombian real exchange rate (RER). One cointegrating vector is found, which can be thought of as a long-run RER equation. The deviations of the RER from its long-run equilibrium relationship, after correcting for short-run dynamics, are interpreted as a measure of RER misalignment. The simulation performance of the model during the period of estimation and three years into the future is particularly good, with the simulated RER reproducing the long-run behaviour of the actual series.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesus Otero, 1999. "The real exchange rate in Colombia: an analysis using multivariate cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 661-671.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:31:y:1999:i:5:p:661-671
    DOI: 10.1080/000368499324101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jorge Ramos F. & Norberto Rodríguez, 1995. "Déficit fiscal y tasas de interés en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 14(27), pages 39-61, June.
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    1. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    2. Jesus Otero & Costas Milas, 2000. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach (Corrected version)," Borradores de Investigación 3232, Universidad del Rosario.
    3. Carlos Esteban Posada, 1999. "Tasa de cambio real y consumo : teoria, evidencia y estudios del caso colombiano, 1950-1997," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 51, pages 7-46, Julio Dic.
    4. Holtemöller, Oliver & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Exchange rate regime, real misalignment and currency crises," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 5-14.
    5. Raju, Sudhakar S. & Melo, Alberto, 2003. "Money, real output, and deficit effects of coffee booms in Colombia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 963-983, December.
    6. Alonso Cifuentes, Julio César & Jaramillo Flechas, Luis Eduardo, 2019. "Descomponiendo el Efecto del Gasto Público en la Tasa de Cambio Real: Una Aproximación al Caso Colombiano || Decomposing the Effect of Public Spending on the Real Exchange Rate: An Approximation to th," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 27(1), pages 91-114, June.

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