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The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence

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  • D. A. Peel
  • A. E. H. Speight

Abstract

The time series properties of unemployment rates for Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are re-examined. Evidence of nonlinear structure in the residuals of the most parsimonious linear ARMA models is reported for all countries except Japan. Modelling this nonlinearity using SETAR models suggests strong asymmetry in unemployment dynamics and the presence of a possible limit cycle for the UK. However, residual diagnostics for these models indicate remaining structure. Alternative TAR models conditioned on past growth rates of industrial production yield substantial reductions in residual variance over both linear and SETAR counterparts, iid residuals in all cases other than the US, and threshold values at or very near zero, clearly identifying the asymmetric behaviour of unemployment during expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • D. A. Peel & A. E. H. Speight, 1998. "The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 287-294, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:2:p:287-294
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498326083
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    1. R. Inglesi-Lotz & A. Hakimi & A. Pouris, 2018. "Patents vs publications and R&D: three sides of the same coin? Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) for OECD and BRICS countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(45), pages 4912-4923, September.
    2. Uctum, Remzi, 2007. "Économétrie des modèles à changement de régimes : un essai de synthèse," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 83(4), pages 447-482, décembre.
    3. Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2008. "Vicious and virtuous circles -- The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 605-614, September.
    4. Franchi, Massimo & Ordóñez, Javier, 2011. "Multiple equilibria in Spanish unemployment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 71-80, February.
    5. Amaia Altuzarra, 2015. "Measuring Unemployment Persistence by Age and Gender," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 110-133, December.
    6. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2010. "Testing for unemployment hysteresis in nonlinear heterogeneous panels: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1097-1102, September.
    8. Tsong Ching-Chuan, 2012. "Unit Root Testing with Stationary Covariates in the Framework of Asymmetric STAR Nonlinearity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(5), pages 1-27, December.
    9. Hamdi, Helmi & Hakimi, Abdelaziz, 2019. "Does Liquidity Matter on Bank Profitability? Evidence from a Nonlinear Framework for a Large Sample," Business and Economics Research Journal, Uludag University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 10(1), pages 13-26, January.
    10. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2002. "Modeling Asymmetries And Moving Equilibria In Unemployment Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 202-241, April.
    11. Lee, Cheng-Feng & Hu, Te-Chung & Li, Ping-Cheng & Tsong, Ching-Chuan, 2013. "Asymmetric behavior of unemployment rates: Evidence from the quantile covariate unit root test," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 72-84.
    12. Tarlok Singh, 2012. "Testing nonlinearities in economic growth in the OECD countries: an evidence from SETAR and STAR models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(30), pages 3887-3908, October.
    13. Sun, Yuying & Han, Ai & Hong, Yongmiao & Wang, Shouyang, 2018. "Threshold autoregressive models for interval-valued time series data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 206(2), pages 414-446.
    14. Johansson, Martin, 2001. "TAR models and real exchange rates," Working Papers 2001:21, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    15. Koller, Wolfgang & Fischer, Manfred M., 2001. "Testing for Non-Linear Dependence in Univariate Time Series An Empirical Investigation of the Austrian Unemployment Rate," MPRA Paper 77809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Tsong Ching-Chuan, 2012. "Unit Root Testing with Stationary Covariates in the Framework of Asymmetric STAR Nonlinearity," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(5), pages 1-27, December.
    17. Abdelaziz Hakimi & Rim Boussaada & Majdi Karmani, 2022. "Is the relationship between corruption, government stability and non‐performing loans non‐linear? A threshold analysis for the MENA region," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4383-4398, October.

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