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Exchange rate volatility and aggregate export growth in Bangladesh

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  • M. Kabir Hassan
  • David R. Tufte

Abstract

The long and short-run determinants of Bangladeshi export growth are examined. These are modelled as depending on world trade volume, Bangladeshi and world export prices, and exchange rate volatility. Several techniques are used to estimate and test hypotheses about the cointegration space of these variables. We find that there are two plausible restricted cointegrating vectors: one appears to be an export demand while the other is suggestive of an export supply. These are then imposed on an error correction model. Estimates suggest that in the long run, Bangladeshi export growth is driven by the volume of world trade, and is negatively, and inelastically related to the volatility of Bangladeshi exchange rates. Once these long-run effects are accounted for, it is found that none of the variables significantly explains any short-run changes in export growth.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Kabir Hassan & David R. Tufte, 1998. "Exchange rate volatility and aggregate export growth in Bangladesh," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 189-201, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:2:p:189-201
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498325994
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. David Kihangire, 2005. "The Effects Of Exchange Rate Variability On Exports: Evidence From Uganda (1988 – 2001)," International Trade 0505013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. BAAK, SaangJoon, 2008. "The bilateral real exchange rates and trade between China and the U.S," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 117-127, June.
    3. Md Deluair Hossen, 2023. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Data Frequency: Firm-Level Evidence from Bangladesh," Papers 2303.04101, arXiv.org.
    4. Mehmet Nihat Solakoglu & Ebru Guven Solakoglu & Tunc Demirağ, 2008. "Exchange rate volatility and exports: a firm-level analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(7), pages 921-929.
    5. SaangJoon Baak & Arif Al-Mahmood & Souksavanh Vixathep, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports from East Asian Countries to Japan and the U. S," Working Papers EMS_2003_01, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    6. Saang Joon Baak, 2006. "The Impact of the Chinese Renminbi on the Exports of the ROK and Japan to the US (ROK Economic System Series No.10)," Discussion papers 0604e, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
    7. Chin, Lee & Yousefi, Abdolaziz, 2017. "Non-Tariff Barriers and Their Effect on Export: Evidence from 5 ASEAN Countries," MPRA Paper 118781, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Yu Hsing & A. M. M. Jamal & Wen-jen Hsieh, 2009. "Application of the monetary policy function to output fluctuations in Bangladesh," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 2113-2122.
    9. Musonda, Anthony, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-Traditional Exports Performance: Zambia, 1965–1999," MPRA Paper 26952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Saang Joon Baak, 2006. "The Impact of the Chinese Renminbi on the Exports of the ROK and Japan to the US (ROK Economic System Series No.10)," Discussion papers 0604, ERINA - Economic Research Institute for Northeast Asia.
    11. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2009. "Exchange rate variability and the export demand for Malaysia's semiconductors: an empirical study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(6), pages 695-706.
    12. Shimu Afroza Ahammed & Islam Md. Shahidul, 2018. "Impacts of Macro Economic Variables on the RMG Export Growth of Bangladesh," Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 32(1), pages 112-125, June.
    13. Mohammad A. Razzaque & Sayema Haque Bidisha & Bazlul Haque Khondker, 2017. "Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 12(1), pages 42-64, April.
    14. Chien-Chung Nieh & Jeng-Bau Lin & Yu-Shan Wang, 2008. "Regime-switching analysis for the impacts of exchange rate volatility on corporate values: a Taiwanese case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 491-504.
    15. Alam, Shaista & Ahmed, Qazi Masood, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Aggregate Exports Demand through ARDL Framework: An Experience from Pakistan Economy," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, February.
    16. Hui-Chuan Chen, 2002. "Taiwan's exports and trade imbalance against US and Japan: an empirical investigation based on error correction model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(18), pages 2303-2309.
    17. Ogunleye, Eric Kehinde, 2008. "Natural resource abundance in Nigeria: From dependence to development," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 168-174, September.
    18. Chien-Chung Nieh, 2002. "The effect of the Asian financial crisis on the relationships among open macroeconomic factors for Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 491-502.
    19. Anwer, Zaheer & Khan, Ashraf & Kabir Hassan, M. & Rashid, Mamunur, 2022. "Does the regional proximity lead to exchange rate spillover?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Yuan, Yan & Awokuse, Titus O., 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility And U.S. Poultry Exports: Evidence From Panel Data," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 22083, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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