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Long- and short-run Fisher effects: new tests and new results

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  • Jeung-Lak Lee
  • Carolyn Clark
  • Sung Ahn

Abstract

We find Fisher effects, both long- and short-run, in our full sample period and in the lengthy first sub-period, using Mishkin's monthly data for Treasury bill yields and the corresponding inflation rate. Recently developed cointegration techniques (Ahn and Reinsel, 1990; Reinsel and Ahn, 1992) are used to detect a long-run Fisher effect. The short-run effect is analysed within a cointegration framework, using a Granger causality test that we developed. In the two more recent, but comparatively short sub-periods since October 1979, our results indicate the Fisher effect is not present in either long- or short-run form. These methodologies and results differ from the conclusions of Mishkin's (1992) recent study.

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  • Jeung-Lak Lee & Carolyn Clark & Sung Ahn, 1998. "Long- and short-run Fisher effects: new tests and new results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 113-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:30:y:1998:i:1:p:113-124
    DOI: 10.1080/000368498326209
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    2. R. Santos Alimi, 2014. "ARDL Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-Examination of Augmented Fisher Hypothesis in an Open Economy," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 103-114, June.
    3. von Thadden, Leopold, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in an OLG model with non-superneutral money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 147-166.
    4. Koziol, Philipp, 2014. "Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 459-472.
    5. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Hasan Olgun, 2007. "Inflation uncertainty and interest rates: is the Fisher relation universal?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 53-68.
    6. Muse, Bernard & Alimi, R. Santos, 2012. "Testing an Augmented Fisher Hypothesis for a Small Open Economy: The Case of Nigeria," MPRA Paper 44987, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Lai, Kon S., 2004. "On structural shifts and stationarity of the ex ante real interest rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 217-228.
    8. Awomuse, Bernard O. & Alimi, Santos R., 2012. "The Relationship between Nominal Interest Rates and Inflation: New Evidence and Implication for Nigeria," MPRA Paper 49684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Somayeh Madadpour & Mohsen Asgari, 2019. "The puzzling relationship between stocks return and inflation: a review article," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(2), pages 115-145, June.
    10. James R. Rhodes, 2006. "DEVOLUTION OF THE FISHER EQUATION: Rational Appreciation to Money Illusion," GRIPS Discussion Papers 07-05, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, revised Sep 2007.
    11. Lai, Kon S., 2008. "The puzzling unit root in the real interest rate and its inconsistency with intertemporal consumption behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 140-155, February.
    12. Yuki Toyoshima & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2011. "Panel cointegration analysis of the Fisher effect: Evidence from the US, the UK, and Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(3), pages 2674-2682.
    13. İsmet Göçer & Serdar Ongan, 2020. "Asymmetric Impacts of Inflation on the US Bond Rates and FED’s Pre-Emptive Policy," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 5(2), pages 143-157, December.
    14. Borja Balparda & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2017. "The fisher relationship in Nigeria," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 343-353, April.

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