IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/45y2013i13p1701-1712.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does service-level spending show evidence of selection across health plan types?

Author

Listed:
  • Randall P. Ellis
  • Shenyi Jiang
  • Tzu-Chun Kuo

Abstract

We provide an explanation for the widespread finding that capitated managed care plans attract comparatively healthy, low cost enrollees relative to traditional unmanaged plans. Using disaggregated commercial insurance claims from the Thomson-Reuters MarketScan database, we show that managed care plans spend proportionally less on those types of services that are predicted to be more profitable to ration tightly using a selection index developed by Ellis and McGuire that captures the derivative of profits with respect to reduced spending on disaggregated services. Conventional diagnosis-based risk adjusted premiums reduce selection incentives by about 50% relative to premiums that are not risk-adjusted.

Suggested Citation

  • Randall P. Ellis & Shenyi Jiang & Tzu-Chun Kuo, 2013. "Does service-level spending show evidence of selection across health plan types?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(13), pages 1701-1712, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:13:p:1701-1712
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2011.636023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2011.636023
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2011.636023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas G. McGuire & Jacob Glazer, 2000. "Optimal Risk Adjustment in Markets with Adverse Selection: An Application to Managed Care," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1055-1071, September.
    2. Partha Deb & Chenghui Li & Pravin K. Trivedi & David M. Zimmer, 2006. "The effect of managed care on use of health care services: results from two contemporaneous household surveys," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(7), pages 743-760, July.
    3. Frank, Richard G. & Glazer, Jacob & McGuire, Thomas G., 2000. "Measuring adverse selection in managed health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 829-854, November.
    4. Office of Health Economics, 2007. "The Economics of Health Care," For School 001490, Office of Health Economics.
    5. Cao, Zhun & McGuire, Thomas G., 2003. "Service-level selection by HMOs in Medicare," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 915-931, November.
    6. Karen Eggleston & Anupa Bir, 2009. "Measuring Selection Incentives in Managed Care: Evidence From the Massachusetts State Employee Insurance Program," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 159-175, March.
    7. Ellis, Randall P. & McGuire, Thomas G., 2007. "Predictability and predictiveness in health care spending," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 25-48, January.
    8. Duarte, Fabian, 2012. "Price elasticity of expenditure across health care services," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 824-841.
    9. Chad D. Meyerhoefer & Samuel H. Zuvekas, 2010. "New estimates of the demand for physical and mental health treatment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 297-315, March.
    10. Arlene Ash & Randall P. Ellis & Gregory Pope & John Ayanian & David Bates & Helen Burstin & Lisa Iezzoni & Elizabeth McKay & Wei Yu, 2000. "Using Diagnoses to Describe Populations and Predict Costs," Papers 0099, Boston University - Industry Studies Programme.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Randall P. Ellis & Pooja G. Mookim, 2013. "K-Fold Cross-Validation is Superior to Split Sample Validation for Risk Adjustment Models," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2013-026, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    2. Wynand Ven & Gerrit Hamstra & Richard Kleef & Mieke Reuser & Piet Stam, 2023. "The goal of risk equalization in regulated competitive health insurance markets," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 111-123, February.
    3. A. A. Withagen-Koster & R. C. Kleef & F. Eijkenaar, 2020. "Incorporating self-reported health measures in risk equalization through constrained regression," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(4), pages 513-528, June.
    4. A. A. Withagen-Koster & R. C. Kleef & F. Eijkenaar, 2018. "Examining unpriced risk heterogeneity in the Dutch health insurance market," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 19(9), pages 1351-1363, December.
    5. Randall P. Ellis & Ching‐to Albert Ma, 2011. "Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 27-44, January.
    6. Richard C. Kleef & Thomas G. McGuire & René C. J. A. Vliet & Wynand P. P. M. de Ven, 2017. "Improving risk equalization with constrained regression," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(9), pages 1137-1156, December.
    7. Timothy J. Layton & Randall P. Ellis & Thomas G. McGuire, 2015. "Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-024, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    8. Randall P. Ellis & Juan Gabriel Fernandez, 2013. "Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-34, October.
    9. Withagen-Koster, Anja A. & van Kleef, Richard C. & Eijkenaar, Frank, 2023. "Predictable profits and losses in a health insurance market with risk equalization: A multiple-contract period perspective," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Ellis, Randall P. & Jiang, Shenyi & Manning, Willard G., 2015. "Optimal health insurance for multiple goods and time periods," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 89-106.
    11. McGuire, Thomas G. & Newhouse, Joseph P. & Normand, Sharon-Lise & Shi, Julie & Zuvekas, Samuel, 2014. "Assessing incentives for service-level selection in private health insurance exchanges," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 47-63.
    12. Richard van Kleef & Thomas McGuire & Rene van Vliet & Wynand van de Ven, 2015. "Improving Risk Equalization with Constrained Regression," NBER Working Papers 21570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Shuli Brammli-Greenberg & Jacob Glazer & Ruth Waitzberg, 2019. "Modest risk-sharing significantly reduces health plans’ incentives for service distortion," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 20(9), pages 1359-1374, December.
    14. Daniel Montanera & Abhay Nath Mishra & T. S. Raghu, 2022. "Mitigating Risk Selection in Healthcare Entitlement Programs: A Beneficiary-Level Competitive Bidding Approach," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 1221-1247, December.
    15. Wynand P. M. M. Ven & René C. J. A. Vliet & Richard C. Kleef, 2017. "How can the regulator show evidence of (no) risk selection in health insurance markets? Conceptual framework and empirical evidence," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(2), pages 167-180, March.
    16. Sungchul Park & Anirban Basu & Norma Coe & Fahad Khalil, 2017. "Service-level Selection: Strategic Risk Selection in Medicare Advantage in Response to Risk Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 24038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timothy J. Layton & Randall P. Ellis & Thomas G. McGuire, 2015. "Assessing Incentives for Adverse Selection in Health Plan Payment Systems," NBER Working Papers 21531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Göpffarth Dirk, 2007. "Theorie und Praxis des Risikostrukturausgleichs / Risk Adjustment in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 227(5-6), pages 485-501, October.
    3. Normann Lorenz, 2014. "The interaction of direct and indirect risk selection," Research Papers in Economics 2014-12, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    4. Timothy Layton & Alice K. Ndikumana & Mark Shepard, 2017. "Health Plan Payment in Medicaid Managed Care: A Hybrid Model of Regulated Competition," NBER Working Papers 23518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Richard van Kleef & Thomas McGuire & Rene van Vliet & Wynand van de Ven, 2015. "Improving Risk Equalization with Constrained Regression," NBER Working Papers 21570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Normann Lorenz, 2013. "Adverse selection and risk adjustment under imperfect competition," Research Papers in Economics 2013-05, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    7. Sungchul Park & Anirban Basu & Norma Coe & Fahad Khalil, 2017. "Service-level Selection: Strategic Risk Selection in Medicare Advantage in Response to Risk Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 24038, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Normann Lorenz, 2014. "Using quantile regression for optimal risk adjustment," Research Papers in Economics 2014-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    9. A. A. Withagen-Koster & R. C. Kleef & F. Eijkenaar, 2020. "Incorporating self-reported health measures in risk equalization through constrained regression," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(4), pages 513-528, June.
    10. Lorenz, Normann, 2015. "The interaction of direct and indirect risk selection," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 81-89.
    11. McGuire, Thomas G. & Newhouse, Joseph P. & Normand, Sharon-Lise & Shi, Julie & Zuvekas, Samuel, 2014. "Assessing incentives for service-level selection in private health insurance exchanges," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 47-63.
    12. Mark Shepard, 2016. "Hospital Network Competition and Adverse Selection: Evidence from the Massachusetts Health Insurance Exchange," NBER Working Papers 22600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Randall P. Ellis & Juan Gabriel Fernandez, 2013. "Risk Selection, Risk Adjustment and Choice: Concepts and Lessons from the Americas," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-34, October.
    14. Michael Geruso & Timothy Layton & Daniel Prinz, 2019. "Screening in Contract Design: Evidence from the ACA Health Insurance Exchanges," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 64-107, May.
    15. Richard C. Kleef & Thomas G. McGuire & René C. J. A. Vliet & Wynand P. P. M. de Ven, 2017. "Improving risk equalization with constrained regression," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(9), pages 1137-1156, December.
    16. Jacob Glazer & Thomas G. McGuire, 2012. "Optimal Risk Adjustment," Chapters, in: Andrew M. Jones (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Health Economics, Second Edition, chapter 27, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Glazer, Jacob & McGuire, Thomas G. & Cao, Zhun & Zaslavsky, Alan, 2008. "Using global ratings of health plans to improve the quality of health care," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1182-1195, September.
    18. Michele Fioretti & Hongming Wang, 2023. "Performance Pay in Insurance Markets: Evidence from Medicare," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1128-1144, September.
    19. Pau Olivella & Marcos Vera-Hernandez, 2010. "How complex are the contracts offered by health plans?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 305-323, July.
    20. Wynand P. M. M. Ven & René C. J. A. Vliet & Richard C. Kleef, 2017. "How can the regulator show evidence of (no) risk selection in health insurance markets? Conceptual framework and empirical evidence," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 18(2), pages 167-180, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:45:y:2013:i:13:p:1701-1712. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.