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Macroeconomic volatility and stock market volatility: empirical evidence on Finnish data

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  • Eva Liljeblom
  • Marianne Stenius

Abstract

The relationship is analysed between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic volatility using monthly data for Finland from 1920 to 1991. Conditional monthly volatility is measured as simple weighted moving averages, and also obtained from GARCH estimations. The results are surprisingly strong as compared to those on US data. Significant results are obtained from stock market volatility as a predictor for macroeconomic volatility, as well as the converse. Tests of the joint and simultaneous explanatory power of the macroeconomic volatilities indicate that between one-sixth to above two-thirds of the changes in aggregate stock volatility might be related to macroeconomic volatility. Some evidence of a negative relationship between stock market volatility and trading volume growth was also detected. This result could either be interpreted as an effect of idiosyncratic demand shifts cancelling out as the thickness of the market is increasing, or as a sign of volume growth being some proxy for the level of economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva Liljeblom & Marianne Stenius, 1997. "Macroeconomic volatility and stock market volatility: empirical evidence on Finnish data," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 419-426.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:7:y:1997:i:4:p:419-426
    DOI: 10.1080/096031097333538
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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen, Trang & Chaiechi, Taha & Eagle, Lynne & Low, David, 2020. "Dynamic transmissions between main stock markets and SME stock markets: Evidence from tropical economies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 308-324.
    2. Ercan Balaban & Asli Bayar & Robert Faff, 2006. "Forecasting stock market volatility: Further international evidence," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 171-188.
    3. Döpke, Jörg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 1998. "Brokers and business cycles: Does financial market volatility cause real fluctuations?," Kiel Working Papers 899, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Knif, Johan & Pynnonen, Seppo & Luoma, Martti, 1996. "Testing for common autocorrelation features of two scandinavian stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 55-64.
    5. Morelli, David, 2002. "The relationship between conditional stock market volatility and conditional macroeconomic volatility: Empirical evidence based on UK data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 101-110.
    6. Lu Wang & Feng Ma & Guoshan Liu, 2020. "Forecasting stock volatility in the presence of extreme shocks: Short‐term and long‐term effects," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 797-810, August.
    7. Albaity, Mohamed Shikh, 2011. "Impact of the monetary policy instruments on Islamic stock market index return," Economics Discussion Papers 2011-26, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1995_034 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Syed Kamran Ali Haider & Shujahat Haider Hashmi & Ishtiaq Ahmed, 2017. "Systematic Risk Factors And Stock Return Volatility," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 11(1-2), September.
    10. Sierimo, Carolina & Virén, Matti, 1995. "Financial factors and the macroeconomy," Research Discussion Papers 34/1995, Bank of Finland.
    11. Md Sharif Hossain, & Md.Thasinul Abedin, 2017. "Socio-economy and stock market volatility," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, August.
    12. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
    13. Jin Guo, 2015. "Causal relationship between stock returns and real economic growth in the pre- and post-crisis period: evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 12-31, January.
    14. Eun Ahn & Jin Man Lee, 2006. "Volatility relationship between stock performance and real output," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(11), pages 777-784.
    15. Canh P. Nguyen & Christophe Schinckus & Thanh D. Su & Felicia H. L. Chong, 2022. "Determinants of stock market returns in emerging markets: The linkage between institutional quality and macro liquidity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4472-4486, October.
    16. Uhunmwangho, Monday, 2022. "Determinants of Stock Market Volatility in Africa," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 10(2), March.
    17. Döpke, Jörg & Pierdzioch, Christian, 1999. "Financial market volatility and inflation uncertainty: An empirical investigation," Kiel Working Papers 913, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Chee Wooi Hooy & Hui Boon Tan & Annuar Md Nassir, 2004. "Risk Sensitivity of Bank Stocks in Malaysia: Empirical Evidence Across the Asian Financial Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 261-276, September.
    19. Margaret N. Okoli, 2012. "Return-Volatility Interactions in the Nigerian Stock Market," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 2(2), pages 389-399, June.
    20. Ghani, Maria & Guo, Qiang & Ma, Feng & Li, Tao, 2022. "Forecasting Pakistan stock market volatility: Evidence from economic variables and the uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1180-1189.

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