IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v7y1997i2p127-136.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock returns and inflation: a macro analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Nicolaas Groenewold
  • Gregory O'Rourke
  • Stephen Thomas

Abstract

A negative relationship between stock returns and (expected) inflation is frequently observed in empirical work and is considered a puzzle since it is expected that stocks are a good hedge against inflation, so that their real rate of return (actual or expected) ought to be unaffected by changes in inflation. Various attempts have been made to resolve this puzzle empirically but have tended to use single equations of a partial equilibrium nature which have been ad hoc to a greater or lesser extent. This paper examines the puzzle in the framework of a small empirical macroeconomic model. The negative sign survives the extension to the full model and the source of the puzzle is found in the macroeconomic interactions: a rise in the expected inflation rate raises equilibrium real output which has a negative impact on stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolaas Groenewold & Gregory O'Rourke & Stephen Thomas, 1997. "Stock returns and inflation: a macro analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 127-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:7:y:1997:i:2:p:127-136
    DOI: 10.1080/096031097333691
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/096031097333691
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/096031097333691?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Financial Deregulation and the Relationship Between the Economy and the Share Market in Australia," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-10, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    2. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. N. Groenewold, 2000. "Fundamental Share Prices and Aggregate Real Output," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 00-05, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    4. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2020. "What have we learnt from modelling stock returns in Nigeria: Higgledy-piggledy?," MPRA Paper 110382, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2021.
    5. Thomas J. Flavin & Michael R. Wickens, 1998. ": A Risk Management Approach to Optimal Asset Allocation," Economics Department Working Paper Series n851298, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    6. Ainul Islam & Mohammed Khaled, 2005. "Tests of Weak-Form Efficiency of the Dhaka Stock Exchange," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7-8), pages 1613-1624.
    7. T.J. Flavin & M.R. Wickens, 2003. "Macroeconomic influences on optimal asset allocation," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 207-231.
    8. Nicolaas Groenewold, 2004. "Fundamental share prices and aggregate real output," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(9), pages 651-661.
    9. Rudra P. PRADHAN & Mak B. ARVIN & Bele SAMADHAN & Shilpa TANEJA, 2013. "The Impact of Stock Market Development on Inflation and Economic Growth of 16 Asian Countries: A Panel VAR Approach," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 13(1), pages 203-218.
    10. Massa, Massimo & Locarno, Alberto, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Du, Ding, 2006. "Monetary policy, stock returns and inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 36-54.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:7:y:1997:i:2:p:127-136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.