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Economic significance of oil price changes on Russian and Chinese stock markets

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  • Michael Soucek
  • Neda Todorova

Abstract

This study discusses the economic significance of the relationship between oil price changes and emerging markets equity returns. It extends the literature by obtaining significant Granger causalities and impulse response functions for the daily returns over the last decade on the emerging markets of Russia and China. Furthermore, it is shown that a trading rule based on a bivariate Vector Autoregresive (VAR( p )) model outperforms the Russian and Chinese stock index in terms of risk and return, even when transaction costs are taken into account. Implementing the bootstrap methodology to test the results, it is proved that oil price fluctuations significantly contribute to the risk profile of the trading strategy for Russian market and improve the risk-return characteristics for Chinese stock trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Soucek & Neda Todorova, 2013. "Economic significance of oil price changes on Russian and Chinese stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 561-571, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:23:y:2013:i:7:p:561-571
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2012.732685
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    5. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
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    8. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Tapia, Pablo & Pastén, Boris & Sepulveda Velasquez, Jorge, 2022. "Performance of the Chinese energy market in times of Russian military interventions," MPRA Paper 112747, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Salisu, Afees A. & Swaray, Raymond & Oloko, Tirimisiyu F., 2019. "Improving the predictability of the oil–US stock nexus: The role of macroeconomic variables," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 153-171.
    11. Salisu, Afees A. & Isah, Kazeem O., 2017. "Revisiting the oil price and stock market nexus: A nonlinear Panel ARDL approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 258-271.
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