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Do trading volumes explain the persistence of GARCH effects?

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  • Rachael Carroll
  • Colm Kearney

Abstract

We examine the role of trading volumes in Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-based tests of the Mixture of Distributions Hypothesis (MDH) on firm-level data for the 20 largest Fortune 500 stocks. In doing so, we provide a set of increasingly generalized nested models within which to examine the role of trading volumes, beginning with the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model with no trading volumes, progressing to the univariate AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-X, the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M and the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M-X models, the constant correlation bivariate AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M-X model, and culminating with the Dynamic Equicorrelation-GARCH (DECO-GARCH) model. Amongst our main findings, the trading volumes are robustly significant and positively signed in the volatility of returns equations for most firms, acting to reduce the persistence and to eliminate the need for GARCH terms. As we progress from the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) to the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-X, AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M-X and the bivariate AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M-X models, the persistence parameters decline from an average of 0.987 to 0.143, 0.206 and 0.141 respectively. Our results are robust and consistent with the MDH in most cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Rachael Carroll & Colm Kearney, 2012. "Do trading volumes explain the persistence of GARCH effects?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(23), pages 1993-2008, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:22:y:2012:i:23:p:1993-2008
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2012.692871
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    Cited by:

    1. You‐How Go & Wee‐Yeap Lau, 2023. "What do we know about informational efficiency? Three puzzles and the new direction forward," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1489-1525, September.
    2. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2016. "Dynamic relationship between stock return, trading volume, and volatility in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: does the US subprime crisis matter?," MPRA Paper 73791, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Liquidity, surprise volume and return premia in the oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 93-104.
    4. Shekar Bose & Hafizur Rahman, 2022. "Are News Effects Necessarily Asymmetric? Evidence from Bangladesh Stock Market," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(4), pages 21582440221, October.
    5. You-How Go & Wee-Yeap Lau, 2020. "Does Trading Volume explain the Information Flow of Crude Palm Oil Futures Returns?," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 12(2), pages 115-136, December.
    6. Abdelkader Derbali & Slaheddine Hallara & Aida Sy, 2016. "Athen's game of chicken or the conditional dependence between the Greek banks," International Journal of Economics and Accounting, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26.
    7. Aboura, Sofiane & Chevallier, Julien, 2014. "Volatility equicorrelation: A cross-market perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 289-295.
    8. Go, You-How & Lau, Wee-Yeap, 2020. "The impact of global financial crisis on informational efficiency: Evidence from price-volume relation in crude palm oil futures market," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    9. Gregor Dorfleitner & Carina Lung, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies from the perspective of euro investors: a re-examination of diversification benefits and a new day-of-the-week effect," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 19(7), pages 472-494, December.
    10. Malay K. Dey & Chaoyan Wang, 2021. "Volume decomposition and volatility in dual-listing H-shares," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(4), pages 301-310, July.
    11. Shekar Bose & Hafizur Rahman, 2015. "Examining the relationship between stock return volatility and trading volume: new evidence from an emerging economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(18), pages 1899-1908, April.
    12. Daouda Lawa tan Toe & Salifou Ouedraogo, 2022. "Dynamic relationship between trading volume, returns and returns volatility: an empirical investigation on the main African’s stock markets," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(5), pages 429-444, September.
    13. Xiao Jing Cai & Shuairu Tian & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2016. "Dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil: evidence from emerging East Asian stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(40), pages 3789-3803, August.
    14. Sofiane Aboura & Julien Chevallier, 2013. "An equicorrelation measure for equity, bond, foreign exchange and commodity returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(18), pages 1618-1624, December.
    15. Carroll, Rachael & Kearney, Colm, 2015. "Testing the mixture of distributions hypothesis on target stocks," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-14.

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