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Oil prices and the greenback: it takes two to tango

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  • Brahim Razgallah
  • Kamal Smimou

Abstract

Although the relationship between oil prices and exchange rates has been investigated extensively in the literature, the results remain mixed. The aim of this article is to revisit this relationship allowing for nonlinear dynamics in the speed of adjustment to the equilibrium. This article argues that the existing literature does not consider oil as an asset class in portfolio allocation, and fails, therefore, to find evidence that exchange rate movements affect oil price dynamics. In other words, the role of oil prices in portfolio preferences is not exogenous to exchange rate determination as modelled in the literature, but rather endogenous. This article shows that during periods of high exchange rate volatility oil prices become highly affected by exchange rate movements of the dollar through a nonlinear smooth transition framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Brahim Razgallah & Kamal Smimou, 2011. "Oil prices and the greenback: it takes two to tango," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 519-528.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:21:y:2011:i:8:p:519-528
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.534062
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Liang & Vo, Minh, 2012. "Exchange rates and oil prices: A multivariate stochastic volatility analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 15-37.
    2. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Kisswani, Khalid M. & Nusair, Salah A., 2013. "Non-linearities in the dynamics of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 341-353.
    4. Salah A. Nusair & Khalid M. Kisswani, 2015. "Asian Real Exchange Rates And Oil Prices: A Cointegration Analysis Under Structural Breaks," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(S1), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Salisu, Afees A. & Mobolaji, Hakeem, 2013. "Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 169-176.
    6. Taufeeque Ahmad Siddiqui & Haseen Ahmed & Mohammad Naushad & Uzma Khan, 2023. "The Relationship between Oil Prices and Exchange Rate: A Systematic Literature Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(3), pages 566-578, May.
    7. Aleksander Olstad & George Filis & Stavros Degiannakis, 2021. "Oil and currency volatilities: Co‐movements and hedging opportunities," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2351-2374, April.

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