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Using Engel curves to estimate CPI bias in a small, open, inflation-targeting economy

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  • John Gibson
  • Grant Scobie

Abstract

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) bias for New Zealand is calculated by estimating the food Engel curves for demographically similar households with the same level of CPI-deflated incomes at different points in time. For the 17 years from 1984 to 2001 the bias in the New Zealand CPI as a cost-of-living index averaged over 1% annually. This bias is similar to estimates for the US when the same method is used over a similar era. Thus, the claim of some statistical agencies that bias in their own CPI is less than the widely discussed bias in the US may not be supported. The estimated CPI bias justifies the initial choice of inflation target for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand but not the recent raising of the target.

Suggested Citation

  • John Gibson & Grant Scobie, 2010. "Using Engel curves to estimate CPI bias in a small, open, inflation-targeting economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(17), pages 1327-1335.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:17:p:1327-1335
    DOI: 10.1080/09603107.2010.491441
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 8086, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    2. Susan Olivia & John Gibson, 2013. "Using Engel curves to measure CPI bias for Indonesia," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 85-101, April.
    3. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Miao Liu, 2016. "Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 113-144, July.
    4. Ingvild Almås & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Thomas F. Crossley, 2018. "Lost in Translation: What do Engel Curves Tell us about the Cost of Living?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6886, CESifo.
    5. James Gorry & Dean Scrimgeour, 2018. "Using Engel Curves To Estimate Consumer Price Index Bias For The Elderly," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 539-553, July.
    6. Almås, Ingvild & Johnsen, Åshild Auglænd, 2012. "The cost of living in China: Implications for inequality and poverty," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 21/2012, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    7. Andrew Dabalen & Isis Gaddis & Nga Thi Viet Nguyen, 2020. "CPI Bias and its Implications for Poverty Reduction in Africa," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 18(1), pages 13-44, March.
    8. Chamon, Marcos & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2014. "Consumption based estimates of urban Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 126-137.
    9. Gaddis,Isis, 2016. "Prices for poverty analysis in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7652, The World Bank.
    10. Buckle, Robert A., 2018. "Thirty years of inflation targeting in New Zealand: The origins, evolution and influence of a monetary policy innovation," Working Paper Series 20927, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.
    11. Ingvild Almas & Ashild Johnsen, 2018. "The cost of a growth miracle - reassessing price and poverty trends in China," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 239-264, October.

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