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On the exploitability of the turn-of-the-month effect-an international perspective

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  • Bernhard Zwergel

Abstract

Many empirical studies have found that patterns in stock index returns are seasonally related, which is contrary to the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). This article takes a closer look at the Turn-Of-the-Month Effect (TOME) and its economic relevance. By scrutinizing the exploitability and global persistence of the TOME, the ongoing discussion about the possibilities of using scientific research on seasonal anomalies for the creation of trading strategies is extended. This article is the first in the TOME literature to consider major non-US futures and to evaluate trading strategies using several risk-adjusted performance measures. Furthermore, it shows that an out-of-sample trading strategy based on the TOME is profitable in all studied futures, including when transaction costs and slippage are taken into account.

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  • Bernhard Zwergel, 2010. "On the exploitability of the turn-of-the-month effect-an international perspective," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 911-922.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:20:y:2010:i:11:p:911-922
    DOI: 10.1080/09603101003724307
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul McGuinness & Richard Harris, 2011. "Comparison of the 'turn-of-the-month' and lunar new year return effects in three Chinese markets: Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(13), pages 917-929.
    2. Lobão, Júlio, 2019. "Seasonal anomalies in the market for American depository receipts," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 24(48), pages 241-265.
    3. Nils Muhlack & Christian Soost & Christian Johannes Henrich, 2022. "Does Weather Still Affect The Stock Market?," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 74(1), pages 1-35, March.
    4. Tariq Aziz & Valeed Ahmad Ansari, 2018. "The Turn of the Month Effect in Asia-Pacific Markets: New Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(1), pages 214-226, February.
    5. Lee, Yu Kyung & Kim, Ryumi, 2022. "The turn-of-the-month effect and trading of types of investors," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    6. Vasileiou, Evangelos, 2018. "Is the turn of the month effect an “abnormal normality”? Controversial findings, new patterns and…hidden signs(?)," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 153-175.
    7. repec:ers:journl:v:vi:y:2018:i:4:p:93-104 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tirthank Shah & Narayan Baser, 2022. "Global mutual fund market: the turn of the month effect and investment strategy," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(6), pages 466-476, October.
    9. Sharma, Susan Sunila & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2014. "New evidence on turn-of-the-month effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-108.
    10. S. Wahyudi & I.R.D. Pangestuti & R.D. Laksana & Hersugondo & Robiyanto, 2018. "Corporate Social Responsibility on SKI KEHATI Index Corporate Performance: A Case Study," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(4), pages 93-104.
    11. Urquhart, Andrew & McGroarty, Frank, 2014. "Calendar effects, market conditions and the Adaptive Market Hypothesis: Evidence from long-run U.S. data," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 154-166.
    12. Muhammad Sarmad Irtiza & Shahbaz Khan & Nida Baig & Syed Muhammad Ali Tirmizi & Ilyas Ahmad, 2021. "The turn-of-the-month effect in Pakistani stock market," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-11, December.
    13. Michael Weigerding & Michael Hanke, 2018. "Drivers of seasonal return patterns in German stocks," Business Research, Springer;German Academic Association for Business Research, vol. 11(1), pages 173-196, February.

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