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Macroeconomic news effects on conditional volatilities in the bond and stock markets

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  • Bala Arshanapalli
  • Edmond d'Ouville
  • Frank Fabozzi
  • Lorne Switzer

Abstract

This paper investigates the sources of time-varying risk for the US stock and bond markets. The model captures the change in the risk premium due to each market's own volatility risk and the covariance risk. We test for the effects of macroeconomic news on time-varying volatility as well as time-varying covariance, and whether such news induces time-varying risk premia in either of the markets. We find that stocks and bonds have higher volatility on the day of macroeconomic announcements. This higher volatility is transitory but because it can be anticipated, it induces increases in the risk premium in both markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Bala Arshanapalli & Edmond d'Ouville & Frank Fabozzi & Lorne Switzer, 2006. "Macroeconomic news effects on conditional volatilities in the bond and stock markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 377-384.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:16:y:2006:i:5:p:377-384
    DOI: 10.1080/09603100500511068
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roland Fuss & Ferdinand Mager & Holger Wohlenberg & Lu Zhao, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic announcements on implied volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(21), pages 1571-1580.
    2. Balaban, Ercan & Ozgen, Tolga & Karidis, Socrates, 2018. "Intraday and interday distribution of stock returns and their asymmetric conditional volatility: Firm-level evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 905-915.
    3. Denise R. Osborn & Christos S. Savva & Len Gill, 2008. "Periodic Dynamic Conditional Correlations between Stock Markets in Europe and the US," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 307-325, Summer.
    4. JingJing (Justine) Wang & John S. Croucher, 2021. "Information linkages among National, NSW, VIC, and QLD real estate markets in Australia," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(2), pages 3207-3234, June.
    5. Imad Moosa & Sulaiman Al-Abduljader, 2010. "A test of the news model of stock price determination in an emerging market: the case of Kuwait," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 397-405.
    6. Lin Mi & Allan Hodgson, 2018. "Real estate's information and volatility links with stock, bond and money markets," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 465-491, November.
    7. Neharika Sobti, 2018. "Domestic intermarket linkages: measuring dynamic return and volatility connectedness among Indian financial markets," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 45(4), pages 325-344, December.
    8. Xuan Vinh Vo & Kevin Daly, 2008. "Volatility amongst firms in the Dow Jones Eurostoxx50 Index," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 569-582.
    9. Balaban, Ercan & Ozgen, Tolga & Girgin, Mehmet Sencer, 2018. "Distributional characteristics of interday stock returns and their asymmetric conditional volatility: Firm-level evidence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 508(C), pages 280-288.
    10. Alpha Basweti Kenyatta & Antony Ngunyi & Anthony Gichuhi Waititu, 2020. "News Classification using Support Vector Machine to Model and Forecast Volatility," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 9(1), pages 1-1.

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