IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/apfiec/v14y2004i15p1075-1085.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Options trading profits from correlation forecasts

Author

Listed:
  • James Chong

Abstract

This study examines the profitability of trading currency straddles on the basis of the volatility and correlation forecasts derived from various statistical models. There is evidence to demonstrate that for maximum wealth accumulation, a trader should employ sophisticated models like the exponential GARCH for correlation forecasts and simpler ones like the exponential weighted moving average for volatility forecasts. With differing transaction costs structure between traders, the directional bets taken by the models of the market maker for the most part appear successful, reaping large positive returns. This is especially evident for GBP/DEM straddles and to a lesser extent for JPY/DEM straddles. However, the options trading strategy profits of the price taker are insufficient to outweigh transaction costs, a result considered consistent with market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • James Chong, 2004. "Options trading profits from correlation forecasts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(15), pages 1075-1085.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:15:p:1075-1085
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310042000281194
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0960310042000281194
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0960310042000281194?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Parametric and Nonparametric Volatility Measurement," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 02-27, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    2. Campa, Jose Manuel & Chang, P. H. Kevin, 1998. "The forecasting ability of correlations implied in foreign exchange options," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 855-880, December.
    3. Donald B. Keim & Ananth Madhavan, "undated". "The Cost of Institutional Equity Trades," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 08-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    4. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. "The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
    5. West, Kenneth D. & Edison, Hali J. & Cho, Dongchul, 1993. "A utility-based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1-2), pages 23-45, August.
    6. Peter Christoffersen & Kris Jacobs, 2004. "Which GARCH Model for Option Valuation?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(9), pages 1204-1221, September.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics, in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038, Elsevier.
    8. Robert F. Engle & Alex Kane & Jaesun Noh, 1993. "Index-Option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 4519, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Robert F. Engle & Che-Hsiung Hong & Alex Kane, 1990. "Valuation of Variance Forecast with Simulated Option Markets," NBER Working Papers 3350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:fth:pennfi:68 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Garman, Mark B. & Kohlhagen, Steven W., 1983. "Foreign currency option values," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 231-237, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Brunetti & C. Torricelli, 2007. "The internal and cross market efficiency in index option markets: an investigation of the Italian market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 25-33.
    2. David VanderLinden & Kristijan Nikolov, 2005. "Enhancing returns on yen: minimizing risk reversal costs," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(17), pages 1203-1211.
    3. Francesco Carlier, 2021. "A Simple Options Trading Strategy based on Technical Indicators," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 88-91.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1997. "Answering the Critics: Yes, ARCH Models Do Provide Good Volatility Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 6023, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
    3. Athanasia Gavala & Nikolay Gospodinov & Deming Jiang, 2006. "Forecasting volatility," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 381-400.
    4. Holger Claessen & Stefan Mittnik, 2002. "Forecasting stock market volatility and the informational efficiency of the DAX-index options market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 302-321.
    5. Jose A. Lopez & Christian Walter, 1997. "Is implied correlation worth calculating? Evidence from foreign exchange options and historical data," Research Paper 9730, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2008. "Volatility forecasting: intra-day vs. inter-day models," MPRA Paper 80434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Carr, Peter & Wu, Liuren, 2007. "Stochastic skew in currency options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 213-247, October.
    8. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson, 1997. "Evaluating forecasts of correlation using option pricing," International Finance Discussion Papers 600, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224.
    11. David S. Bates, 1995. "Testing Option Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 5129, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Schmitt, Christian & Kaehler, Jürgen, 1996. "Delta-neutral volatility trading with intra-day prices: an application to options on the DAX," ZEW Discussion Papers 96-25, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    13. Patton, Andrew J., 2011. "Volatility forecast comparison using imperfect volatility proxies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 246-256, January.
    14. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
    15. Busch, Thomas & Christensen, Bent Jesper & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2011. "The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 48-57, January.
    16. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    17. Daglish, Toby & Maheu, John & McCurdy, Tom, 2008. "A Financial Metric for Comparing Volatility Models: Do Better Models Make Money?," Working Paper Series 4009, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    18. Miguel A. Ferreira, 2005. "Evaluating Interest Rate Covariance Models Within a Value-at-Risk Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(1), pages 126-168.
    19. Christoffersen, Peter & Jacobs, Kris & Chang, Bo Young, 2013. "Forecasting with Option-Implied Information," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 581-656, Elsevier.
    20. Kaehler, Jürgen, 1991. "Modelling and forecasting exchange-rate volatility with ARCH-type models," ZEW Discussion Papers 91-02, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:14:y:2004:i:15:p:1075-1085. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAFE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.