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Dispersion of analysts' expectations and the cross-section of stock returns

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  • Bokhyeon Baik
  • Cheolbeom Park

Abstract

Empirical evidence is presented to show that the dispersion in analysts' forecasts can explain part of the differences in cross-sectional stock returns. Generally, high dispersion stocks show relatively lower future returns than low dispersion stocks, and the difference in performance is statistically significant. Furthermore, the negative relation between stock returns and dispersions continues to hold even after controlling for size, book-to-market ratio and earnings-price ratio. This empirical fact is consistent with the earlier model of Harrison and Kreps, and demonstrates that investors are exploiting their awareness of heterogeneity in expectations in order to pursue resale gains

Suggested Citation

  • Bokhyeon Baik & Cheolbeom Park, 2003. "Dispersion of analysts' expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(11), pages 829-839.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:13:y:2003:i:11:p:829-839
    DOI: 10.1080/0960310032000129617
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Barakat, Ahmed & Ashby, Simon & Fenn, Paul, 2018. "The reputational effects of analysts' stock recommendations and credit ratings: Evidence from operational risk announcements in the financial industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 1-22.
    2. Thomas Zellweger & Roger Meister & Urs Fueglistaller, 2007. "The outperformance of family firms: the role of variance in earnings per share and analyst forecast dispersion on the Swiss market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(2), pages 203-220, June.
    3. Jorida Papakroni, 2018. "The dispersion anomaly and analyst recommendations," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 861-896, April.

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