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The conditional relation between beta and returns in the Hong Kong stock market

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  • Keith Lam

Abstract

Published results of empirical tests over the past two decades indicate that the risk-return relation in the Hong Kong stock market is negative. Such findings refute the positive risk-returnrelation stipulatedinthe traditional CAPM. However, traditional CAPM invokes expected or ex-ante returns while empirical tests have used ex-post returns as an imperfect proxy. Thus, in this paper, the risk-return relationship in the Hong Kong stock market is examined using the conditional method based on the work of Pettengill et al., which takes into consideration the dominating ex-post negative excess market returns found in the Hong Kong stock market. Under the conditional Pettengill et al. method, test results demonstrate a strong conditional positive and negative risk-return relationships in the Hong Kong stock market. The results show that the estimated risk premiums in both up and down markets are insignificantly different from the corresponding expected risk premiums. But the estimated risk premiums of the up and the down markets are asymmetric with the magnitude of the down market premium greater than that of the up market. Thus, under the conditional CAPM, the estimated security market line (SML) in the down market is negatively steeper than is the positively sloped estimated SML in the up market. The significant results are not driven by abnormal return behaviour in some of the months or by a particular beta group. Thus, in general, the test results suggest that the conditional CAPM is still practically a useful equilibrium pricing model in the Hong Kong stock market.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith Lam, 2001. "The conditional relation between beta and returns in the Hong Kong stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 669-680.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:11:y:2001:i:6:p:669-680
    DOI: 10.1080/096031001753266957
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Accolley, Delali, 2021. "Some Markov-Switching Models for the Toronto Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 108072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. David Morelli, 2012. "Security returns, beta, size, and book-to-market equity: evidence from the Shanghai A-share market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 47-60, January.
    3. Nurjannah & Don U.A. Galagedera & Robert Brooks, 2012. "Conditional Relation between Systematic Risk and Returns in the Conventional and Downside Frameworks: Evidence from the Indonesian Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 11(3), pages 271-300, December.
    4. Morelli, David, 2007. "Beta, size, book-to-market equity and returns: A study based on UK data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 257-272, July.
    5. Ahmad Faisol & Sulaeman Rahman Nidar & Aldrin Herwany, 2022. "The Analysis of Risk and Return Using Sharia Compliance Assets Pricing Model with Profit-Sharing Approach (Mudharabah) in Energy Sector Company in Indonesia," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-14, September.
    6. Omran, M.F., 2007. "An analysis of the capital asset pricing model in the Egyptian stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 801-812, February.
    7. Chin, Leong Choong & Sek, Siok Kun & Tan, Yee Theng, 2018. "A Sectorial Performance Analysis of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE, Bursa Malaysia)," MPRA Paper 90148, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gordon Tang & Wai Cheong Shum, 2006. "Risk-return relationships in the Hong Kong stock market: revisit," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1047-1058.
    9. Bernard Bollen & Philip Gharghori, 2016. "How is β related to asset returns?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(21), pages 1925-1935, May.
    10. Keith Lam & Frank Li, 2008. "The risk premiums of the four-factor asset pricing model in the Hong Kong stock market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(20), pages 1667-1680.
    11. Lam, Keith S.K. & Tam, Lewis H.K., 2011. "Liquidity and asset pricing: Evidence from the Hong Kong stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2217-2230, September.
    12. Mark C. Freeman & Cherif Guermat, 2006. "The Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Returns: A Reassessment," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(7‐8), pages 1213-1239, September.
    13. Durand, Robert B. & Lan, Yihui & Ng, Andrew, 2011. "Conditional beta: Evidence from Asian emerging markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 130-153.
    14. Nida SHAH* & Javaid DARS* & Ambreen ZEB**, 2015. "Market Varying Conditional Risk-Return Relationship," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 25(1), pages 25-43.
    15. Guermat, Cherif & Freeman, Mark C., 2010. "A net beta test of asset pricing models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 1-9, January.

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