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Is the term structure nonlinear? A semiparametric investigation

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  • Lance Bachmeier

Abstract

A semiparametric error correction model (ECM) is estimated using US term structure data. We use 5 and 10 year interest rates to predict short-term (1 month to 12 month) interest rates. It is found that the semiparametric ECM model predicts better than the popular linear ECM. These results provide further evidence of nonlinearity in the term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Lance Bachmeier, 2002. "Is the term structure nonlinear? A semiparametric investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 151-153.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:3:p:151-153
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850110053275
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anderson, Heather M, 1997. "Transaction Costs and Non-linear Adjustment towards Equilibrium in the US Treasury Bill Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 465-484, November.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    3. Robinson, Peter M, 1988. "Root- N-Consistent Semiparametric Regression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(4), pages 931-954, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Saart & Jiti Gao & Nam Hyun Kim, 2014. "Semiparametric methods in nonlinear time series analysis: a selective review," Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 141-169, March.
    2. Pelin ÖGE GÜNEY, 2013. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Cointegration Analysis in the Non-Linear STAR Framework," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 5(12), pages 851-860.
    3. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Zhuo Qiao & Wing-keung Wong, 2010. "Linearity and stationarity of G7 government bond returns," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 2642-2655.
    4. Araç, Ayşen & Yalta, A. Yasemin, 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis for the Eurozone: A nonlinear cointegration analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 41-48.
    5. Daiki Maki, 2006. "Non-linear adjustment in the term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis in the non-linear STAR framework," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(17), pages 1301-1307.
    6. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    7. Henry, De-Graft Acquah & Lawrence, Acheampong, 2017. "Comparing Parametric And Semiparametric Error Correction Models For Estimation Of Long Run Equilibrium Between Exports And Imports," APSTRACT: Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce, AGRIMBA, vol. 11(1-2), September.
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    9. Ayşen ARAÇ, 2015. "Nonlinear Dynamics in Term Structure of Interest Rates: Evidence from the Euro Area," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(26).

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