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Smooth transition vector error correction models for the spot prices of coffee

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  • Costas Milas
  • Jesus Otero

Abstract

The nonlinear behaviour of four coffee price series is examined, that is, unwashed Arabicas (i.e. coffee from Brazil), Colombian Mild Arabicas (i.e. coffee from Colombia), other Mild Arabicas (i.e. coffee from other Latin American countries), and Robusta coffee (i.e. coffee from Africa and Southeast Asia). First is identified the cointegrating relationships and then that these enter the error correction equations in a nonlinear way is shown. The estimates suggest a rather common pattern of nonlinear adjustment for the same variety Arabica coffees.

Suggested Citation

  • Costas Milas & Jesus Otero, 2002. "Smooth transition vector error correction models for the spot prices of coffee," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 925-928.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:9:y:2002:i:14:p:925-928
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850210138513
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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    1. Costas Milas & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2004. "Forecasting the spot prices of various coffee types using linear and non-linear error correction models," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.
    2. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, January.
    3. Fousekis, Panos & Grigoriadis, Vasilis, 2022. "Conditional tail price risk spillovers in coffee markets across quality, physical space, and time: Empirical analysis with penalized quantile regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    4. Andrea Bastianin & Alessandro Lanza & Matteo Manera, 2018. "Economic impacts of El Niño southern oscillation: evidence from the Colombian coffee market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(5), pages 623-633, September.
    5. Coronado Ramírez Semei Leopoldo & Porras Serrano Jesús & Sandoval Bravo Salvador, 2013. "Aplicación de bicorrelación cruzada al rendimiento diario del precio del café," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 58(1), pages 117-129, enero-mar.
    6. Atanu Ghoshray, 2010. "The Extent Of The World Coffee Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 97-107, January.
    7. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Atanu Ghoshray, 2009. "On Price Dynamics for Different Qualities of Coffee," Review of Market Integration, India Development Foundation, vol. 1(1), pages 103-118, April.
    9. John M. Fry & Baoying Lai & Mark Rhodes, 2011. "The interdependence of Coffee spot and futures market," Working Papers 2011.1, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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