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Identification of parametric policy options for rehabilitating a pay-as-you-go based pension system: an optimization analysis for Turkey

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  • Serdar Sayan
  • Arzdar Kiraci

Abstract

Publicly managed pension systems operating on the basis of pay-as-you-go (PAYG) schemes face financial difficulties worldwide. The expenditure-revenue balances of such a system are determined jointly by the selected configuration of system parameters, and interrelated developments in the labour market and demographic structure. In a country where pension coverage is compulsory, these developments occur completely beyond the control of pension system administrators implying that any imbalances that may arise over time can be corrected only by adjusting the existing configuration of contribution and replacement rates, and minimum retirement ages. It can be shown, however, that there are infinitely many configurations of these system parameters that could be used to maintain a selected intertemporal balance between the amounts of contributions collected from workers and pensions paid to the retirees. This paper describes an algorithm developed to identify all possible configurations compatible with this goal and illustrates its use with reference to the pension reform debate in Turkey, a country whose PAYG-based pension system already faces a severe financial crisis despite a relatively young workforce/population. The results indicate that for contribution and replacement rates to remain around their current values, the minimum retirement age must be increased substantially.

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  • Serdar Sayan & Arzdar Kiraci, 2001. "Identification of parametric policy options for rehabilitating a pay-as-you-go based pension system: an optimization analysis for Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 89-93.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:8:y:2001:i:2:p:89-93
    DOI: 10.1080/13504850150204129
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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Saime S KAYAM & Merih CELİKTOPUZ & Mehmet KORAY PARKIN, 2013. "Features That Influence The Exit Decision From The Private Pension System In Turkey," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 145-155.
    2. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    3. Godínez-Olivares, Humberto & Boado-Penas, María del Carmen & Haberman, Steven, 2016. "Optimal strategies for pay-as-you-go pension finance: A sustainability framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 117-126.
    4. Gumus, Erdal, 2005. "Benefit-Cost Analysis of Turkish Social Insurance Institute Gradual Privatization Proposal," MPRA Paper 42372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Gunes Asik, 2018. "Impact of early retirement incentives on labor supply of young men and women : evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 20180002, UMR Développement et Sociétés, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement.
    6. Glenn P. Jenkins & Godwin O Olasehinde-Williams & Roya Amel, 2019. "Private Benefits, Fiscal Costs, and Economic Resource Costs of the Private Defined Contribution Pension Systems in Turkey," Development Discussion Papers 2019-02, JDI Executive Programs.
    7. Sayan, Serdar & Kiraci, Arzdar, 2001. "Parametric pension reform with higher retirement ages: A computational investigation of alternatives for a pay-as-you-go-based pension system," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 951-966, June.
    8. Gumus, Erdal, 2008. "Türk Sosyal Güvenlik Sisteminin Değerlendirilmesi ve Sosyal Güvenlik Kurumlarının Finansal Geleceği [An Evaluation of Turkish Social Security Reform Process and Its Financial Future]," MPRA Paper 42160, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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