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The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey

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  • Volkan Ülke
  • Serdar Varlik
  • M. Hakan Berument

Abstract

This article assesses the effect of output growth volatility on output growth within a stochastic-volatility-in-mean model with a time-varying framework for an open small economy: Turkey. Until now, the empirical evidence on industrial production mainly reveals that this relationship is negative. However, in further examining different sectors and sub-sectors of industrial production, we find the sign of the relationship changes depending on the sector. Moreover, there is limited evidence that the sign of the relationship changes over time. Thus, the evidence reveals that the nature of the output growth volatility–output growth relationship is not uniform across sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Volkan Ülke & Serdar Varlik & M. Hakan Berument, 2019. "The effect of output growth volatility on output growth: empirical evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 522-531, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:26:y:2019:i:6:p:522-531
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2018.1488035
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    Cited by:

    1. Terence D. Agbeyegbe, 2023. "The Link Between Output Growth and Output Growth Volatility: Barbados," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 787-804, June.
    2. Jiang, Yong & Zhou, Zhongbao & Liu, Qing & Lin, Ling & Xiao, Helu, 2020. "How do oil price shocks affect the output volatility of the U.S. energy mining industry? The roles of structural oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).

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