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Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections

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  • Juan Equiza-Goñi
  • Fernando Perez de Gracia

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the impact of oil prices on both aggregate and industry US real stock returns over the period 1973–2017. The empirical analysis contributes to the related literature introducing a state-dependent oil price (high and low) and the local projections approach. Our main finding is that, depending on the nature of the shock and industry, the negative effects of oil price shocks become exacerbated -and the positive effects get moderated- if oil prices are already high.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Equiza-Goñi & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2019. "Impact of state-dependent oil price on US stock returns using local projections," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(11), pages 919-926, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:26:y:2019:i:11:p:919-926
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2018.1523610
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    Cited by:

    1. Sardar, Naafey & Sharma, Shahil, 2022. "Oil prices & stock returns: Modeling the asymmetric effects around the zero lower bound," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    2. Sheng, Xin & Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2023. "The non-linear response of US state-level tradable and non-tradable inflation to oil shocks: The role of oil-dependence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Equiza-Goñi, Juan & de Gracia, Fernando Perez, 2020. "Impact of proved reserves on stock returns of U.S. oil and gas corporations using firm-level data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    5. Atems, Bebonchu & Sardar, Naafey, 2021. "Exploring asymmetries in the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. food and agricultural stock prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Mirko Abbritti & Juan Equiza-Goñi & Fernando Perez Gracia & Tommaso Trani, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on economic activity: a local projections approach," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(4), pages 708-723, October.

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