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Housing, consumption and monetary policy: how different are the first-, second- and third-tier cities in China?

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  • Lili Wu
  • Yang Bian

Abstract

This article presents an empirical analysis of the relationship between house prices and the real economy in China’s first-, second- and third-tier cities. A Structural Vector Autoregression model is applied to study the impacts of monetary policy shocks and housing demand shocks on various housing markets across China. We also investigate the role of house prices in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The results reveal that in first-tier cities, raising interest rates has a stronger negative effect on house prices. Also, as house prices decrease in first-tier cities, private consumption declines sharply. There is a stronger role of housing markets in the transmission of monetary policy shocks in these cities. Our findings indicate that interest rate adjustment could effectively curb spikes in housing prices in the first-tier cities, but the impact of such adjustments on household consumption must also be considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Lili Wu & Yang Bian, 2018. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: how different are the first-, second- and third-tier cities in China?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1107-1111, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:25:y:2018:i:15:p:1107-1111
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1412069
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef Bajzik & Jan Janku & Simona Malovana & Klara Moravcova & Ngoc Anh Ngo, 2023. "Monetary Policy Has a Long-Lasting Impact on Credit: Evidence from 91 VAR Studies," Working Papers 2023/19, Czech National Bank.
    2. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    3. Wilhelmsson, Mats, 2020. "What role does the housing market play for the transmission mechanism?," Working Paper Series 20/5, Royal Institute of Technology, Department of Real Estate and Construction Management & Banking and Finance.
    4. Jia Li & Rachel Tochen & Yaning Dong & Zhuoran Ren, 2022. "Debt-Driven Property Boom, Land-Based Financing and Trends of Housing Financialization: Evidence from China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-23, November.
    5. Yin, Xiao-Cui & Li, Xin & Wang, Min-Hui & Qin, Meng & Shao, Xue-Feng, 2021. "Do economic policy uncertainty and its components predict China's housing returns?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Zhang, Xiaoyu & Pan, Fanghui, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy and output shocks on the real estate market in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    7. Zhao, Congyu & Jia, Rongwen & Dong, Kangyin, 2023. "Does financial inclusion achieve the dual dividends of narrowing carbon inequality within cities and between cities? Empirical evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    8. Mats Wilhelmsson, 2020. "What Role Does the Housing Market Play for the Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanism?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Zhou, Qiuyang, 2024. "Does the digital economy promote the consumption structure upgrading of urban residents? Evidence from Chinese cities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 543-551.
    10. Wanying Lu & Jianfu Shen, 2022. "Urban Leverage and Housing Price in China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-12, February.
    11. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank.

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