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Do expectations matter? Reassessing the effects of government spending on key macroeconomic variables in Germany

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  • Klaus Gründler
  • Sarah Sauerhammer

Abstract

This article contributes to the debate on how to properly identify exogenous fiscal shocks in the data. We include expectations held by consumers and firms into the standard vector autoregression (VAR) framework based on information from historical issues of the German political magazine Der Spiegel. The findings underscore the need to account for expectations, as failing to do so leads to significant misinterpretation of the effects of government spending. When neglecting anticipation effects, our results support the recent findings for Germany by pointing to a rather positive effect of government spending on GDP. However, inclusion of expectations yields a change in this effect, suggesting that government spending is much less beneficial for GDP, as it crowds out private consumption and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Gründler & Sarah Sauerhammer, 2018. "Do expectations matter? Reassessing the effects of government spending on key macroeconomic variables in Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1045-1050, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:25:y:2018:i:15:p:1045-1050
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1394967
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Ideologically-charged terminology: austerity, fiscal consolidation, and sustainable governance," CESifo Working Paper Series 7613, CESifo.
    2. Hazwan Haini & Pang Wei Loon, 2021. "Does Government Ideology Affect the Relationship Between Government Spending and Economic Growth?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(3), pages 209-216, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

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