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Is good news for Donald Trump bad news for the Peso?

Author

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  • T. Randolph Beard
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Michael L. Stern

Abstract

We study the relationship between Mr. Trump’s election prospects and the US dollar-peso exchange rate, controlling for other factors that determine overall exchange rates. Increases in Mr. Trump’s probability of winning generate short-run, but statistically significant economically meaningful, disturbances in the US dollar-peso exchange rate. We also provide evidence on Mr. Trump’s effects on Mexican equity markets, premia for Mexican sovereign default risks, exchange rate volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • T. Randolph Beard & Hyeongwoo Kim & Michael L. Stern, 2017. "Is good news for Donald Trump bad news for the Peso?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(19), pages 1363-1368, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:19:p:1363-1368
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1279262
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyeongwoo Kim & Madeline H. Kim, 2021. "U.S. presidential election polls and the economic prospects of China and Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(54), pages 6231-6248, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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