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Predicting a flash crash in the yen/dollar foreign exchange market

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  • Yoshihiro Kitamura

Abstract

I examine whether the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading (VPIN) can predict a flash crash in the yen/dollar foreign exchange market. The results show that VPIN using bulk volume classification predicted a recent event. However, VPIN using order flows, which are the amount of the ask-side transaction minus those of bid-side, does not.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoshihiro Kitamura, 2017. "Predicting a flash crash in the yen/dollar foreign exchange market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(14), pages 987-990, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:14:p:987-990
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1245831
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    Cited by:

    1. Prodromou, Tina & Westerholm, P. Joakim, 2022. "Are high frequency traders responsible for extreme price movements?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 94-111.
    2. Yildiz, Serhat & Van Ness, Bonnie & Van Ness, Robert, 2020. "VPIN, liquidity, and return volatility in the U.S. equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

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