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For they know not what they do: an analysis of monetary policy during the Great Moderation

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  • Makram El-Shagi
  • Logan J. Kelly

Abstract

In this article, we develop an empirical framework to show the importance of money during the Great Moderation, while accounting for the fact that monetary policy was exclusively conducted through interest rates. We estimate the impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition derived from a structural VAR with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator–based lag selection. The variance decomposition suggests that a substantial component of macroeconomic variation has been driven by shocks to the money market, which were not only unintended by the Federal Reserve, but worse passed unnoticed allowing those shocks to accumulate over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Makram El-Shagi & Logan J. Kelly, 2017. "For they know not what they do: an analysis of monetary policy during the Great Moderation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(10), pages 717-721, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:10:p:717-721
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1223812
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    Cited by:

    1. Makram El-Shagi & Lunan Jiang, 2017. "China Monetary Policy Transmission in China: Dual Shocks with Dual Bond Markets," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2017/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.

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