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Chinese superstition in US commodity trading

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  • Richard Chung
  • Ali F. Darrat
  • Bin Li

Abstract

We examine the potential effect of Chinese superstition on the prices of four commodities traded in the US commodity market using daily data from January 1994 to September 2012. We focus on market responses to days that Chinese traders superstitiously deem as either lucky or unlucky. Our results suggest that day 4 in the month (considered unlucky) is associated with significantly lower returns for three commodities (copper, cotton and soybean). The evidence controls for the possible effects of other anomalies and emerges despite the fact that China buys only about half of the US total exports of these commodities. These results seem in conflict with an efficient US commodity market as it opens the possibility for formulating profitable trading rules based on day 4 trading.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Chung & Ali F. Darrat & Bin Li, 2014. "Chinese superstition in US commodity trading," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 171-175, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:21:y:2014:i:3:p:171-175
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.848012
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    Cited by:

    1. Roger, Patrick & D’Hondt, Catherine & Plotkina, Daria & Hoffmann, Arvid, 2022. "Number 19: Another Victim of the COVID‐19 Pandemic?," LIDAM Reprints LFIN 2022012, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    2. Cui, Yueting & Gavriilidis, Konstantinos & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2024. "Numerological superstitions and market-wide herding: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    3. Yang, Ann Shawing, 2016. "Calendar trading of Taiwan stock market: A study of holidays on trading detachment and interruptions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 140-154.
    4. Yufeng Luo & Haolong Fu & Seydou Traore, 2014. "Biodiversity Conservation in Rice Paddies in China: Toward Ecological Sustainability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(9), pages 1-18, September.
    5. Tang-Lee, Diane, 2016. "Corporate social responsibility (CSR) and public engagement for a Chinese state-backed mining project in Myanmar – Challenges and prospects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 28-37.
    6. Tao Chen, 2018. "Dragon CEOs and Firm Value," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(3), pages 382-395, September.
    7. Yuanyuan Yang & Shuwen Zhang & Dongyan Wang & Jiuchun Yang & Xiaoshi Xing, 2014. "Spatiotemporal Changes of Farming-Pastoral Ecotone in Northern China, 1954–2005: A Case Study in Zhenlai County, Jilin Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    8. Yuan Quan & Chenxing Wang & Yan Yan & Gang Wu & Hongxun Zhang, 2016. "Impact of Inter‐Basin Water Transfer Projects on Regional Ecological Security from a Telecoupling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-12, February.
    9. Bai, Min & Xu, Limin & Yu, Chia-Feng (Jeffrey) & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2020. "Superstition and stock price crash risk," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Tao Chen & Andreas Karathanasopoulos & Stanley Iat-Meng Ko & Chia Chun Lo, 2020. "Lucky lots and unlucky investors," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 735-751, February.
    11. Urban, Frauke & Geall, Sam & Wang, Yu, 2016. "Solar PV and solar water heaters in China: Different pathways to low carbon energy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 531-542.

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